What are the chances of a Reverse Bradley happening in the polling booths?

[last1standing]

This could be a stupid comment, but I'm seeing a lot of people here in the Metro Detroit suburbs who are in real financial pain but still think it's not socially acceptable to to vote for the black guy. This attitude is especially prominent in the lower working class neighborhoods where racism has been ingrained for a long time.

On the other hand, these people don't like mcsame or palin because they know that the repubs are just going to screw them over, again. What's more, I'm hearing far fewer people willing to make disparaging remarks against Obama in a one to one conversation. In fact, I'd almost say there seems to be a grudging respect.

Now these people are definitely being counted as mcsame supporters in the polls but it feels like something is changing. They won't admit it to their friends or families but I know there's an honest desire there to do the right thing and vote for Obama.

So what does everyone here think of the possibility that these low information voters could turn out with a Reverse Bradley effect in November? Is this just silly dreaming or what?

[yardwork]

1. I was wondering that exact thing this morning!

Here in the south, we're hearing about people who can't bring themselves to suppport a black man for president, but they're so sickened by McCain-Palin they won't vote there either.

I suspect that when some of these people are alone with their ballots, they'll vote for Obama. Just a hunch.

[LiberalFighter]

3. If they vote for Obama good for them. If they don't vote for either. Still a step in right direction

Provided they would normally vote for any Republican.

[last1standing]

5. Great minds, Yardwork, great minds. lol

In my area most of the residents are southern transplants - my family is from KY and TN, my wife's are from AL. We give some cities southern names like Talortucky. So we're probably talking about the same demographic. These people are ignorant, no doubt about it, but they're not bad people. They want to do what's best for this country and right now it seems like they're battling between what they believe and what they're seeing with their own eyes. That's not easy for anyone.

Either way, these are repub votes that will, hopefully, end up being for grabs. I like it when the right wing has to sweat the vote more than the Dems. :)

[krawhitham]

2. You will see two things

Some rethugs will just stay home
Red Necks when in the booth when no one will know how they are voting will vote for what is best for them (Obama)

[CK_John]

4. Or will they just stay home? n/t

[last1standing]

8. I think that in itself would be a reverse Bradley.

It could be that they tell their family and friends that they're going to vote mcsame and then stay home. I wouldn't be against that.

[yardwork]

11. I do think that a lot of them will stay home. They'll just not vote this year.

[Jennicut]

6. They will vote for him in secret but tell their buddies they voted for McPhalin.

[Mariana]

13. Bingo.

I know half a dozen people that I suspect are going to do exactly that. They'll NEVER admit it.

[ShadowLiberal]

7. Well part of the cause for Bradley effect could be under/over representation in the polls

The fact of the matter is it's very difficult for pollsters to predict turnout, especially of young voters and people who have never voted before.

Another problem is a significant part of the population, I'm not sure of the number, at least 10%, as high as 15% in some places, are people without landline phones. If you don't have a landline phone then you aren't going to get called up by the pollsters.

The groups most likely to fall in that category of pollsters being unable to contact them tend to be more heavily democratic. They tend to be young or minorities, and Obama is spending a significant amount of time and effort at registering new voters, especially people who fall into those two groups.

But at the same time, it may not be quite as simple as that to explain how some states polls were wrong and had a Bradley effect where Hillary won. I mean all of those groups (well other then Hispanics, who tend to be more heavily concentrated in several states) tended to support Obama more then Hillary.

There were quite a few reverse Bradley effects in the primaries though, not one poll predicted Obama getting a double digit win in South Carolina, though they all agreed he was going to win the state, then Obama won by like 28% I think. North Carolina polls showed it being a very tight race before their primary, only for Obama to get a double digit win.

[RichGirl]

9. It's not a stupid comment at all.

Here in the south it's acceptable and expected, in some areas, to be racist. You are actually an outsider if you aren't. In fact, when I first moved here I didn't even admit to being a democrat! Everybody wants to be accepted so I think some people pretend to be racist or simply say nothing and go along. I think in many neighborhoods people would be embarassed to put out an Obama yard sign and afraid they would be shunned. It would not surprise me in the least if a lot of these people pull the lever for Obama in the privacy of the voting booth.

In another election I did some canvassing. I spoke to four different people all on the SAME street who told me that they were the ONLY democrat on the street! By the time I got to the last one I said...no you're not and pointed to the houses where other democrats were in hiding.

The non-racist of the rural south have to come out of the closet!!

[last1standing]

10. LOL! You're outing Democrats?

I'm in a heavily Democratic area of Michigan but it's still like what you've described in some areas just because Obama's African-American. The funny thing is, like you, I don't think most of these people are racists, they just don't have the intestinal fortitude to stand up to those who are.

[Berry Cool]

12. I posted the "Reverse Bradley" theory earlier.

I just can't help but wonder how many white people may feel pressured within their own social milieu to act racist or be dismissive of African Americans in general, but secretly in their hearts feel Obama will make a better president than McCain...and in the privacy of the voting booth will go with him...and of course emerge afterwards to laughs and chuckles saying of course they voted for McCain, are you kidding, they'd never vote for one of "those" guys...really...I mean, come on...

[eshfemme]

14. That would be awesome

I think anyone can sympathize with the secret "fuck you" in response to the overwhelming peer pressure. Seriously, ever since we've been going to school, we've all been put into situations where we could probably relate.

But it's just been recently that the cognitive dissonance when it comes to politics has been so painful.

I can understand though why there could be a reverse Bradley effect. Although, one question: would the reverse Bradley completely neutralize the Bradley effect or will one effect be more dominant? Who knows. I'm certainly hoping for the reverse!

[elizm]

15. I've been saying that for months!

I personally know Republicans who support Obama but won't tell their families!

[liberalMOmama]

16. Everytime I hear the argument

that when people are in the privacy of the voting booth, they won't for a black man, I tell them that I actually think it's the opposite. My reasoning is that anyone who is brave enough in some areas of the country to say they are voting Obama isn't going to change their minds. It's more likely the opposite.

Glad to hear that others are thinking along the same lines.

[Coexist]

17. Roland Martin addressed this, and I think its real.

People who have die-hard, loud-ass republican friends to whom they would never admit they are worried about McCain. They step into that booth, realize how important this election is, and vote for Obama, and never tell anyone.

[No Elephants]

18. The polls are high in Obama's favor. So, Dems look for the cloud behind that silver lining. I'm

more worried about funny vote machines and funny vote counters. And I am not even that worried about them. Stay positive, for pity sake! Focus. Donate. Volunteer. Bote.

[tekisui]

19. An independent in a very conservative neighborhood

told me that he is certain "people will come out of the woodwork for Obama" as election day nears. FWIW, I believe him!

[BklynChick]

20. I think they'll be a little bit of both. It may be a wash in the end.

[BklynChick]

22. for some people, their own racism is trumped by the intelligence in Obama & the idiocy in the Rethug

[alwysdrunk]

21. I've sensed the same thing

In Georgia and Ohio. The grudging respect thing definitely.

What's a Reverse Bradley? What's a regular Bradley?

[vanderBeth]

23. The Bradley Effect says that white people will tell people they will vote for the black candidate

out of fear of being called racist, but will actually vote for the white candidate on election day.

I guess Reverse Bradley would be the opposite.

[WeDidIt]

24. Since Obama outperformed the polls during the primaries

I'd say it's a fair good bet he'll do the same during the general election.