Do Major Polls Underestimate Youth and Minority Turnout?

[babylonsister]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html

Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout


Ann Selzer, as you may know, is among the best pollsters in the business. In fact, we have her firm, Selzer & Co., rated as the single best pollster out of the 32 companies that we evaluated. Polling for the Des Moines Register, she nailed both the Democratic and Republican outcomes in the Iowa caucus, races that other pollsters had a great deal of trouble with.

Selzer's polls, as you also may know, have tended to have significantly better numbers for Barack Obama than most other agencies. In Indiana, for instance, Selzer has the race at Obama +3, whereas most other polling firms show John McCain with a (small) lead. In Michigan, while several polls have shown Obama with a fairly large lead, Selzer's poll for the Detroit Free Press pegs the race at Obama +13, the largest Obama lead in any current poll of the state.

Clearly this is not random variance; the Obama "house effect" is highly statistically significant. So I asked Selzer what she might be doing differently from other pollsters.

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote. Young voters are becoming harder and harder to reach. They are in the habit of screening their phone calls. More problematically still, a great number of them (roughly 50 percent of voters under 30) rely principally or exclusively on cellphones, which most pollsters (including Selzer) will not call.

more...

[PBS Poll-435]

1. I really like her take on this.

K/R

[CK_John]

2. The youth vote never shows up anyway. n/t

[FatDave]

6. That was true for a long time.

This new generation though, the kids for whom this will be their first election, they seem really eager. I saw a lot of 17 and 18 year-olds at my caucus. They seem awfully inspired by Barack, so I hope they'll turn out this time. We'll see. We need to really impress on them that even if it looks like we're way ahead, their vote is important. Too many of them tend to think "well everybody else is voting, I can skip it this time, my one vote's not gonna make the difference." Trouble is, when thousands have that attitude, we lose.

Me, I voted for Dukakis at age 18 and have never missed a presidential vote yet.

[Whalestoe]

8. We are excited!

I'm tired of mediocrity in this country. I can't wait to vote. Neither can my friends...

Obama was my choice as the Democratic Nominee... so I will be so happy when he is my President next!

[CK_John]

9. But are they registered and have they confirmed that registration. Many

don't know the process, especially kids away at college. Many college towns and counties don't want students registered and complicate the process.

[WillyT]

3. Recent Article For You On The Cell-Phone Thing...

Link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26889731/

:hi:

[babylonsister]

5. Thank you, Willy T.

:hi:

[Christian30]

4. I think two things...

1. I do think that Selzer's math is more accurate than other pollsters. Given the enormous gap between voter registration between the parties, in favor of the Dems, and the surge in youth vote for the Democratic primaries, I think most polls are underestimating the youth vote.

2. I think some of these pollsters are in cahoots with the Repukes, purposefully ignoring the youth vote in order to create a narrative that will buck the exit polling on Election Day. Then when the voting machines "eat" the young voters ballots, they will use these polls to say, "Oh, the young people didn't come out and vote."

[jberryhill]

7. Things I've heard in every election since 1972

"The youth vote will be important"

Then, from 1976 onward "Energy Independence" - That's almost an election laugh line.

I'd love to be proven wrong on both.

[Thrill]

10. Of course they do. Because both usually have underwhelming turnout