Group that voted 2-to-1 for Bush over Kerry said Obama won debate

[ailsagirl]

A poll on CNN's Website with 80,500 respondents gave Obama the victory 67% to 28%. An NBC survey, which drew 291,000 responses gave the victory to Obama 51% to 35%. Democracy Corps ran a 45-person focus group in St. Louis. The group was heavily tilted towards the Republicans, with 33% identifying as Republicans, 27% identifying as Democrats, and the rest independents. The group as a whole voted for Bush over Kerry by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004. Nevertheless, by a 38% to 27% margin, they felt that Obama won the debate.

:woohoo:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[ailsagirl]

1. kick

[gateley]

2. Am I correct in thinking I heard/read that essentially Bush won the debates

because people "liked" him more than they did Kerry? The 'want to have a beer with' type of response? (Nothing to do with substance or policies, natch.) If that's so, and that's how a lot of people really respond, then Obama's gotta be winning them over like crazy. McCain came across as a mean, humorless, stern old man. Somebody you'd feel uncomfortable around.

[ailsagirl]

3. Good points-- of course, I thought Gore won but I don't recall

much about that disastrous election... blocked it, I guess.

[msallied]

6. Gore won on substance but lost on personality and perception.

So in essence, he lost the debates. The sighing, the arrogant swagger in the town hall meeting he had with Bush... it didn't translate very well at all to moderates. I read something back then that said for people who listened to the debates on the radio, Gore won. For people who watched them on television, Bush won.

[gateley]

11. That's interesting about the radio vs television responses.

But it makes sense -- we seem to be wired that way. I have a book entitled Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, which essentially supports the tv/radio info.

[tblue37]

23. That's what happened when Nixon and JFK debated in 1960.

Those who listened on the radio gave the win to Nixon; those who saw it on TV thought JFK won.

[ailsagirl]

36. But ultimately, he did win the Presidency, except that... well, you

know... :puke:

[Schulzz]

4. Yes, I think Obama wins the "beer-vote" and the policy vote against McCain. nt

[msallied]

5. Politics in America is about 90% perception/personality.

The debates are the only time to give people a real glimpse at this sort of thing and make their decisions. Americans vote with their hearts and their guts and not with their brains. Democrats tend to fail at this by putting up the smartest guy in the room, but smarts don't always equate to likability. We, as a culture, do not value intelligence. In fact, it's downright denigrated by half of this country.

I think that's why Obama is so popular. He's intelligent, but he's not so cerebral that you can't relate to him. McCain is old, cold, and aloof.

[ailsagirl]

7. Well said. IMO, Mcpain really blew it with his icy demeanor

In contrast to Obama, who was relaxed and confident (and his points all made sense!!). It would appear that as more time elapses, the more people believe that he won handily. :patriot:

[FatDave]

15. Obama's the cool smart kid.

Not one of the nerdy smart kids. Think back to High school. There was a cool, popular, smart kid, wasn't there?

[msallied]

21. Yeah. It was me. LOL!

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. no, people thought Kerry won the debates, but it didn't change their minds

by 2004, everyone knew Bush was stupid, so you were either going for him or you weren't. Kerry put on a masterful performance, especially in the first one, but the thing about it was, it didn't move any poll numbers. Plus, Kerry was already behind in the polls by that point. It was a few weeks after the Swiftboating.

[ailsagirl]

37. Repugs voted for shrub and dems voted for Kerry and the election

was stolen.

[fujiyama]

52. I think he pulled in about even after the debates

Had he not done so well, he probably would have lost by an even larger margin. The double whammy of Swift Boat ads and the convention hit him hard and he was behind by 5+ points in many polls before the debates.

[karynnj]

9. No, almost every focus group and poll was won by Kerry

in each of the 3 debates. The "want to have a beer with" stuff was given as the reason for the election result, though there is a better case to be made that so close to 911, people didn't have the courage to change.

(The contrast between a diplomatic Obama and a mean old man McCain is not that different than the contrast between the diplomatic Kerry and the exceeding strange and angry Bush. People voted in spite of what was seen.)

[msallied]

13. Kerry lost for one reason and one reason only

When he was caught in his own words saying he was "for the $87 billion before he was against it" the Bush folks literally POUNCED on it. He was branded as a "flip-flopper" and he never was able to escape that meme. The Swiftboating did a decent job of sidelining the narrative, but it was ultimately that Kerry was branded as someone weak during a time of war. Bush, as an incumbent and "war president," had all that going for him. If America was going to be expected to change horses in mid-stream during a war, then by golly, they weren't gonna do it for a "flip-flopper."

This is a completely different election because there is no incumbent involved. We cannot apply the mindset of 2004 to now. If Obama won the debates, then he's effectively winning the race.

[karynnj]

16. The $87 billion comment was something that Kerry needed

Democratic support on - he did explain it many times - and the media simply acted dumb.

Now in the light of this week - consider the reason Kerry gave MANY times.

1) He voted for the version that paid for the $87 billion by rolling back the tax cuts
and
2) He voted against the version that put it on the "nation's credit card to be paid for by our kids.

Kerry was being 100% consistent to the fiscal moderation that he has been for since he entered the Senate. Where were the Democrats in the media to explain this - even Kerry's surrogates did a terrible job on this - including Joe Biden, who said that HE voted yes for both and Kerry's vote was a mistake!

No one has ever gone through an entire campaign and never said something badly - and here Kerry had just given a full explation shortly before. Where were people like Carvelle and Begala, 2 Democrats on TV, in getting out the true reason - one, incidentally that could have resonated with people.

As it was Kerry nearly won what was the hardest race for a democrat in 1984, in spite of politically motivated terror alerts, and a media tilting to an extreme degree in favor of Bush. Even then, had there been enough voting machines in Ohio, instead of looking for every flaw, Kerry's campaign would be cited as a case where taking a high road approach and treating the voters with respect and giving them credit for intelligence worked.

The biggest difference between then and now is that 80% of the country says the country is going in the wrong direction - in 2004 it was less than 50%

[msallied]

18. Look, I supported Kerry 100% and understood the $87B thing perfectly

But it didn't matter. Rove Co. got out ahead of the story and "flip-flopper" was hammered REPEATEDLY. There was no escaping it.

I'm not saying that Kerry didn't say or do the right thing. I'm saying that as far as strategy was concerned, the Republicans had the advantage. They played dirty pool and it paid off.

[FatDave]

17. Kerry also seemed to have trouble coming up with a sound bite.

Likability and soundbites. That's what matters.

[msallied]

19. All Kerry had was "I'm not Bush."

And this worked strictly for loyal Democrats. Also, the Jesus Freak edge was there more than they were in 2000. They turned out in form because Rove pushed a dozen important states to put gay marriage shit on their ballots.

Bush had the edge in several ways in 2004. It was a close election, yes, and some could argue that it was stolen, but let's not fool ourselves. The Rove strategy of organizing, of hammering people with sound bites, and getting people to the polls worked beautifully.

And, remarkably, it is going to work for us. We're not as craven as Rove, but we're organized and we have all the ammo in the world on our side.

[ProSense]

22. Nonsense: Wrong War, Wrong Place, Wrong Time

"W" is wrong: wrong choices, wrong judgment, wrong priorities, wrong direction for our country

Wrong on everything from jobs to Iraq.

Kerry's acceptance address was widely compared by media pundits to the progressive-era speeches of President Theodore Roosevelt, who advocated the social welfare programs characteristic of American liberalism, but also supported strengthening American military power and nationalistic patriotism. The speech, analysts added, attempted to portray the Democratic Party as masculine, even macho — much like the Republicans have historically presented themselves. Kerry stressed his qualities as a warrior and his ability to wage war when needed, a need to expand and modernize the armed forces, and a need to increase the size of special forces divisions. Alluding to the Bush administration's having fired Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki for demanding a peacekeeping plan before going to war in Iraq, Kerry also stressed the need to heed the counsel of generals.

Media analysts also characterized Kerry's speech as closer in style to a sitting president's State of the Union Address than those historically given by candidates at nominating conventions. Kerry listed specific proposals for programs and legislation, and offered a way to pay for them. He promised to train 40,000 new active duty troops, to quickly implement all the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, to cut the national deficit in half within four years, to cut middle class taxes while repealing the Bush administration's tax cuts for those making more than $200,000 per year, to stop privatization of Social Security, and to embrace science over religious dogma, especially with regards to stem cell research, which the Bush administration has constrained. He issued a promise to improve homeland security measures and quality of living: "We shouldn't be opening firehouses in Baghdad and closing them down in the United States of America." Although Kerry clarified the broad tenets of the Democratic platform, some liberals criticized the party's evasion of abortion rights and gay rights, while others found Kerry's plans too vague. On the whole, however, the address was well-received, and pundits found that Kerry's forceful delivery had made the normally dour candidate more appealing.

more

[msallied]

25. And all that substance accounted for nothing.

Because in the end, Kerry looked like a flip-flopper who was "anybody but Bush." And that wasn't good enough to unseat the incumbent. Incumbency rates are high in this country for a reason. Because most voters are happy with what's familiar or they're intellectually lazy.

As I said, I didn't need convincing. But if you're a low info voter staring at the TV, you're gonna say to yourself "Well he sure seems smart and he says the right stuff, but why did he vote against our troops? I saw him say it right there on the teevee!"

Add in the fact that Bush had the religious right firmly on his side this time, and Kerry either lost or the race was made close enough to steal, depending on your view.

I love John Kerry, but there was no way in hell he stood a chance against "The Architect."

[blm]

35. That is such absurdity - Rove had to STEAL it BECAUSE he couldn't WIN IT politically

so that makes him a thug with great connections like the vote machine owners, not a political master 'architect' the way the uninformed have been told.

A real genius would have won through their political strategy - they wouldn't have HAD to spend the 80s and 90s gaining control of most broadcast media, and spending most of 2000-2004 gaining control over the election process at every level where the votes are allowed, cast and counted. Rove was fortunate that Clinton, their loyalists and McAuliffe as head of the DNC had no intention of any Democrat winning in 2004, anyway, so McAuliffe did NOTHING to secure the election process in the four years after 2000s theft.

If Rove was the genius architect you think he wouldn't have HAD to steal it. Bush would've won in a landslide of Reagan proprtions. Kerry was damn great and overcame just about everything BUT the lousy fucking DNC and their lack of interest in winning.

[ailsagirl]

39. It's my belief that Kerry won but the vote was tampered with so it

went to ****

[blm]

43. and let's not let McAuliffe off the hook for sitting on his hands for 4yrs WHILE they set it up

.

[ailsagirl]

46. Right. And things are still status quo, aren't they??

I'm going to be an utter WRECK on election eve...

[blm]

50. not nearly as bad...Dean strengthened party infrastructure that had been collapsed years before

in too many states. With no Dem muscle in states like Florida, Ohio, NC, et al, it was easy for to RNC to gain control of the election process at every level they needed to subvert and steal votes from Dems. If there are any states that succumb to another steal, it will be because that state didn't heed the call to tighten up and flex its infrastructure muscles.

I do hope that in the next few weeks Dean will lay down some sort of VERY PUBLIC warning about GOP officials and their hackers tampering with the vote process.

[ailsagirl]

51. Thanks for the info, blm... let's hope election fraud is a thing of the past...

[msallied]

27. Also, Kerry's saying it was the "wrong war" was easily defeated

anytime a Republican said "Well you voted for it!" Kerry was the one constantly on the defensive regarding his Senate votes.

[ProSense]

30. That's not true.

The Republicans rarely used that argument because Kerry responses left them defenseless.

It's the reason they came up with the bogus flip flop. The media knew it was about the funding bill not the war, but long after it was explained, they continued to conflate it to become a comment about the war vote. That is media complicity at work.

When Kerry called for regime change in this country one week into the war, the Repubs threw a hissy fit.

[blm]

33. Kerry didn't vote for war - he voted for a resolution. He was ETHICALLY AGAINST decision to invade

when the weapon inspectors were proving force was not needed - and EVERY DEM who voted for that resolution based on what the weapon inspectors might find should have ALIGNED themselves with Kerry on that. He was RIGHt and they ALL were wrong for siding with Bush's decision instead. The Clintons, Lieberman, Biden and many more ABANDONED the right stand to take after the weapon inspectors began reporting back that there was no reason to invade.

Try siding with TRUTH instead of spin. Selling that vote for a resolution as a vote for war as if Bush HAD no choice but to invade was a key part of shaping the public perception and the corpmedia did exactly what Rove and their owners told them to do.

[msallied]

42. LISTEN TO ME!

I'm NOT siding with the spin! I'm DESCRIBING the spin and how it defeated Kerry! Get it? This thread provides plenty of context if you bother reading it.

[blm]

44. Repeating the spin instead of FIGHTING IT is siding with the spin. Get it?

.

[msallied]

48. Again, we are talking about how the spin hurt Kerry.

And possibly cost him the election in 2004. Theories abound and I am arguing one of those theories.

Don't barge in the middle of a conversation if you aren't prepared to know wtf you are talking about, because you look like an effing moron.

[blm]

57. There wouldn't have BEEN spin if wellknown Dems did THEIR job and argued RESPONSIBLY for Kerry

throughout that election cycle - instead more showed their mugs on TV day in and day out in support of Bush's decision to invade. You don't see that election the way it actually went down and even when you do acknowledge it was spin, you lay the blame on the one guy who actually DID HIS JOB, while the rest of the party was taking a pass.

[blm]

34. Bullshit - Kerry did so well BushInc had to STEAL IT...again. WTF do y'all THINK the US attorney

firings are about at their core, anyway?

Georgia races and Siegelman's race in Alabama were stolen in 2002 not just because Rove wanted those wins, but, because they NEEDED rehearsals for their 2004 tactics.

[msallied]

49. If Kerry did so fucking well, he would have been up by millions in the popular vote

And it would have been impossible to steal. Stop blaming EVERYTHING on the opponent. The fact is, the Kerry campaign made several small missteps that the Bush campaign exploited and it cost Kerry a LOT of votes, enough that election fraud was made quite simple by the Bush people. I don't like it anymore than you do, but STOP denying that the Democrats didn't play a part in their own defeat.

[blm]

54. According to RFK Jrs calculations, Kerry WAS up by about 5 MILLION VOTES - only Dems could be

so easily swayed to attack the best lawmaker in government.

Only Dems could be easily led to believe the nominee who gained 10-15 MILLION votes more than the last election deserved to be treated with such lies and disrespect even as he was being betrayed by the well known Dems who would not flinch from their support of the ASSHOLE IN CHIEF Bush.

[tblue37]

24. He lost because of election fraud. If the votes had been honestly counted, he would have won. n/t

[msallied]

26. If the race hadn't been so close, it wouldn't have been stolen.

It's far easier to steal an election that is too close to call. This is why it was SO important to get millions of new voters registered. We outnumber Republicans now. We just have to get them to turn out!

[tblue37]

28. Yyeah--but the Rethugs are busy dumping our new voters, and a lot of our old

ones, off the voter rolls for the flimsiest of reasons. And black box voting is still there to allow them to switch Dem votes to Rethug votes.

[blm]

55. BULLSHIT - It was rigged by PERCENTAGE - you really don't get it, do you?

.

[ailsagirl]

40. Amen

[rebel with a cause]

29. Here the talk was they are the same....

So it is better to stay with what we know than go with what we don't. Heck, even that was a lie they told because over 50% of the people here were still in love with bush, the reformed alcoholic who was getting his directions from god, and would have followed him anywhere he lead them. Well, they did and pulled the rest of us kicking and screaming with them.

[blm]

32. Kerry won. RNC stole that election for Bush and McAuliffe's DNC sat on their hands and let them.

.

[ailsagirl]

38. Kerry did win. I think it's outrageous that they got away with it.

Gore won-- but it was wrested from him. It's monstrous to me that they had the ultimate power of manipulating the votes. And still do. :scared:

[Lorien]

56. Candidates that the people "just like" nearly always win

that's the one fact that could sway the VP debate in Palin's favor; Biden can come across as just another calculating politician, while Palin, obviously a complete moron, is easy to identify with for Joe and Jane sixpack. Thankfully there are THREE Presidential debates to swing things back to Obama if that happens!

[ailsagirl]

10. To get the undecideds to go for Obama is great-- but to get

those who actually favored **** is really fantastic. Think of how our numbers must be swelling! Though I hate to believe we've got it in the bag because I don't know what those bastards have up their slimy sleeves. We know how far they've sunk in the past-- this is the Big One-- they must be desperate. Desperation is scary. But I'm trying to keep a good thought.

[karynnj]

12. This is actually to be expected

Bush's approval went from 50% to below 30%. Many of those people would have voted against Bush if the election were even in late 2005.

[FatDave]

14. It's simple really.

Obama's the cool cat having a cigarette at a table in the corner of a jazz club. McCain's a grumpy old man yelling "Get off my lawn!"

Come to think of it, the campaign should probably play up his smoking.

[msallied]

20. lol. Perfect analogy, really.

McCain doesn't even remind me of my grandpa, and that's a good litmus test. Old men are supposed to be all kindly and stuff. I expect to be able to walk up to McCain and have him give me a Werther's Original candy. But no, he'd probably clock me on the side of my head and call me a c*nt.

[ailsagirl]

41. Obama smokes??

[msallied]

45. He used to, but he quit.

[ailsagirl]

47. Didn't know that. When I've seen photos of him in his 20s and 30s,

he looks heavier-- definitely he was heavier-- and it wasn't overly so at all. He looks like a jogger with that lean mean body but I know it's basketball he plays.

[FatDave]

53. Did he quit?

Last I heard he was trying but still hadn't kicked. I know I wouldn't want to quit in the middle of this campaign. I'd need 'em more than ever.

[democracy1st]

31. K & R good heads up