How good do you feel about our chances?

[usregimechange]

How would you rate the likelihood of an Obama victory?

[gravity]

1. Cautiously optomistic

I am confident, but we shouldn't keep the eye off the ball

[BlooInBloo]

2. 80.5% sure, atm.

[sandnsea]

3. If he doesn't win

I will join the stolen election conspiracy. Provided there is no major gaffe between now and Nov 4.

[AllieB]

4. Cautiously Optimistic.

I think Obama will win even with rampant voter fraud in places like OH, FL, and MI. With new Democratic registrations outnumbering Republican ones in battleground states, it is actually an uphill battle for the McCain campaign. We just have to make sure that these new registrations translate into votes.

[high density]

5. It feels better than John Kerry

But we still have a month+ to go, and that's an eternity in politics.

[RichardRay]

6. Focused enthusiasm n/t

[hlthe2b]

7. All I know is that I adore Rachel Maddow, but if she doesn't STOP

saying she thinks John McCain is going to win, I'm going to LOSE IT!

Despite her professional creds, I have to wonder whether she really believes it, or whether she is simply trying not to jinx the election...

[melody]

10. I respect Rachel greatly but she usually embraces the darkest scenario

She also thought that Hillary was going to take the fight all the way to the convention, etc, etc.

[Mz Pip]

13. She sounds like

my hubby. He is so cynical. He has no faith in the American people to get beyond their prejudices and vote in the best interest of the country. He felt this way in 2000, 2004 and in 2006. I keep reminding him that he was wrong in 2006 and can be wrong again.

I am cautiously optimistic, but this has been like a roller coaster ride and we shall see if we are soaring upward on Nov 4 or plunging into a dark scary cave.

I find McCain more and more frightening as each day goes by. At first I was sort of thinking that if he got elected he couldn't possibly be as bad as Bush. Now I fear that he will be worse.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. She's a farce

Rachel Maddow reminds me of an old guy I knew here in Las Vegas, a gambler who died a few years ago, originally from Cleveland. He had great sports knowledge and was sharp in general, but in terms of outcomes he was the most needlessly pessimistic person I've ever met.

We called him Opening Pitch. He was a huge baseball bettor. From literally the opening pitch he would moan and resign if his pitcher threw a ball or a base hit.

When Rachel was lauded in the spring for lashing against Scarborough, the reason behind it was conveniently ignored. I watched that entire show. Early in the hour, Rachel launched her typical defeatist crap; "we're doomed..., McCain is the beneficiary of the extended primary..." That stuff works fine on her radio program. But no way Scarborough or Harwood were going to let her get away with it. They basically belittled her, emphasizing all the big picture fundamentals of 2008 that make it a pro-Democratic year. Rachel was so stunned you could see it all over her face. She steamed for several segments then when she had an opportunity she ripped Scarborough, like a vindictive little girl.

I have no respect for analysts who don't grasp the big picture. She can win every issue battle but if she thinks McCain was ever the actual favorite I wish she would make the betting lines and let me play into them.

Same thing to lesser degree with Nate Silver on 538. Somehow he allowed McCain's post-convention bounce to move his numbers all the way to McCain a significant favorite. What a joke. You can't obsess over the most immediate indications without defaulting to a basic power rating for the two sides.

[Sebastian Doyle]

8. I'll throw in my usual caveat here

Voter intent will be absolutely on our side. If everyone who wants to vote is allowed to vote, and their votes are counted legitimately, it would be a landslide victory.

It all comes down to how much they can get away with stealing. The Repukes and their partners in the DLC would be just as fine with a "narrow" Democratic victory as they would a Repuke win, because they would claim there was no "mandate" for change, and even if we kept technical control of both houses of Congress, the same dozen or so shit for brains DLC'ers in the Senate would continue to vote against the party every time it counts.

We need an overwhelming victory. Nothing else is acceptable. Repukes out of power now, and the DLC needs to know that they are next.

[Thegonagle]

9. Much better than '04. nt

[Overseas]

11. Without election fraud = Landslide. With same RNC tampering as last time = narrow victory.

The RNC election tampering is via the Dribs & Drabs Method. A few thousand votes here and there are discouraged, electronically flipped or uncounted. Then when one case is found, it can be dismissed as "too small to affect the outcome." And it is a hassle to put all the incidents together, so the minor fraud they did in 2002, 2004 and 2006 goes without major indictments for election fraud.

Stealing America: Vote by Vote is a great comprehensive calm documentary that covers the various methods used in recent elections, and some historical background. www.stealingamericathemovie.com

We want to turn out ten million extra voters this time to overwhelm their methods of disenfanchising Democrats.

Republicans are again planning to "challenge" voter registrations at the polls in Democratic districts. They'll get people to stop and prove their identities and valid registrations, primarily just to slow down the voting. That can discourage lots of people or send them home without voting. They used that technique heavily in Ohio in 2004. Remember the long lines in Democratic areas, while Republican precincts breezed through the process. There was also a little problem of the Republican Secretary of State forgetting to distribute enough machines to the Democratic precincts. Whoopsie do. Sorry folks.

So we need extra millions this time. And extra patience. No early concessions.

But we can also expect the RNC to have more tricks up their sleeve. Maybe they'll challenge the Obama landslide and have some more fake "spontaneous voter riots" planned like the one in 2000 that was composed of Washington D.C. Republican legistlators' staff that we all were told was a local thing.

[tbyg52]

19. Exactly. We gotta have enough they can't steal it, plus keep an eagle eye on them.

Edited for traditional stupid typo, unless there really is such a thing as an "eagle eyeon." Would that be like a "round tuit"? ;)

[tpi10d]

12. feeling good today..

Still have month to go and typically twists and turns.

The polling reaction to the debate is a very good sign in my book. It may be the start of this thing breaking for Obama.

Also the perception McCain is erratic and impulsive seems to be taking hold in the mainstream (Newsweek cover, etc.) Cool under pressure is a good thing during these times.

If the election were held today, Obama wins. If we can hold on, its ours.

[Window]

14. It would be nice to hear from the 'unlikely' voters.

[4_Legs_Good]

16. I'm still on Likely... If we can keep these numbers up and no blunders for 2 weeks, I'll switch

to very likely.

I'm enthusiastic and optimistic at this point, though.

And I'm really, really excited about Obama being President!

David

[Kermitt Gribble]

17. Very Likely**

Until we take election fraud into account.

[Curious_Quebec]

18. I remember 2004 ....

From where I am, it was impossible for Bush to get reelected... but he was... so now, even with this improbable ticket (McCranky/Bible Spice), the Repigs are not out of the race yet. -- a very concerned neighbor---

[mtnsnake]

20. Very confident. Obama is running a beautiful campaign

Not only is he a great candidate but he's a great campaigner. It seems that he also has hired some of the best people to manage his campaign affairs. The country is ready for a Democratic president, no doubt, but we still can't make any mistakes, and so far Obama isn't making any serious ones, if any at all.

[DiamondKrosse]

21. decent

because at this point in time, Obama's got the momentum going with the economy as his good performance in the debates. The challenge ahead is the VP debate, which could either seal Obama's win, or shift momentum back to McCain if and when Biden says something stupid. Palin just being there is gonna give this debate extremely high ratings. Also, Obama's electoral college math, is unsurprisingly, nearly the same as 2004, even though he promised he would "change the map." (The other Democratic candidate actually had http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html">the ability to do so, but she was passed up, even though she was beating McCain outside of the margin of error in most of those swing states, many of which have gone Democratic in recent history, and were won by her husband). But Obama needs Colorado AND New Mexico, or he needs Ohio. Problem is Colorado has voted Dem once since 1964, and New Mexico will still be a cliffhanger, and most importantly, both are near McCain's home turf. Virginia hasn't gone Dem since 1964, so thats still very shaky, and if the GOP gets enough older whites to turn out, the state's as good as McCain's. The good thing for Obama is the winner of the national popular vote wins the election more than 9 out of 10 times, and if he maintains a solid and consistent lead, he will likely win the election. McCain's debating also isn't top notch. But that won't stop Jeremiah Wright ads from coming out in a month. Obama needs to tar McCain as Bush, but McCain also needs to exhaust all ways to laugh that off, and people need to stop warming up to the word "maverick." I would say Obama's got a 50-50 chance.