8-point Gallup lead only covers one day after the debate but it covers McCain's 'suspension' stunt

[bigtree]

September 29, 2008


09/25 - 09/27 Gallup Tracking 50 - 42 Obama +8

These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-50-42-Lead.aspx

[TheDonkey]

1. Looks like that stunt backfired on poor McClown.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. The post-debate spread will be at least 11: 52-41.

Takers?

[tpi10d]

3. one complete day after the debate (sat.)

And that looked to be a very good one for Obama..note the 3 point increase.

[bigtree]

4. I think Gallup says Tuesday's will cover the debate

[MadBadger]

5. This poll does cover one complete day after the debate

Tuesday will cover all days after debate

[bigtree]

6. sorry, wrote that wrong

thinking the same . . . brain freeze :hi: thanks!

[earthlover]

8. tuesday will be the first day that all three days of polling will be after the debate

the current findings include ONE day after the debate.

From the amount of movement, one would have to assume that saturday's polling was very strong for Obama. I would not be surprised that by Tuesday we will have a higher Obama bounce than today's findings show.

[bigtree]

10. thanks

I couldn't spit that out

[1corona4u]

7. Has Gallup been right in the past, as far as who won the election?

[bigtree]

9. this poll is a snapshot

especially the Gallup Tracking poll

[1corona4u]

13. Ok, I have a head cold, and on meds, but am I missing it?

Is Gallup even on there?

[bigtree]

16. no, it's me

Gallup is pretty reliable

"Gallup polls are usually accurate in predicting the correct outcome of the current United States presidential election. A notable exception is the 1948 Thomas Dewey-Harry S. Truman election, where nearly all pollsters predicted a Dewey victory. The Gallup poll also inaccurately projected a slim victory by Gerald Ford in 1976, where he lost to Jimmy Carter by a small margin."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup_poll

[Schulzz]

11. A Bush-Kerry graph was posted yesterday.

Bush was leading Kerry in their tracking poll 52-44 or so at this time in 2004. Perhaps somebody can repost it, I didn't find it.

[Celebrandil]

12. Gallup is hardly the best

According to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com and others Gallup has not been particularly successful. The smaller the firms the better the predictions.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. Worried?

:rofl:

[Celebrandil]

15. Not at all

I'm not that worried. It looks much better now than in 2004. Back then there was a lot of talk about the quality of pollsters. People tried to convince each others that the numbers were better than they looked. However, it didn't turn up that way. Even if some pollsters underestimated the mobile only voters, they overestimated the enthusiasm.