VP debates dont change polls. dont worry.

[optimisticin08]

I am reading some posts worried that palin will do well. Even if she does VP debates dont make a difference in the polls. Biden needs to be cool and gaffe free and everything will be fine.

[LaurenG]

1. Palin will not do well - she will embarrass the hell out of her party

I don't know who said that - but they can't be paying attention.

[optimisticin08]

2. Bar set so low

All she has to do is show up and breathe and the media will say she did great, but it doesnt matter.

[melody]

4. As McDud said, horse****

They said the exact same thing about McOld. It didn't work out that way.

[Telly Savalas]

20. The bar-setting is bullshit.

If the Republican ticket wins and something were to happen to McCain, she'd be the president. This debate is a platform for her to demonstrate she's qualified for that job. It's not a place for her to leap over some artificially low hurdle.

If the Democratic talking heads can't get this point across, then we need to find new talking heads.

[D23MIURG23]

21. Yeah, but people are still going to see her.

And if she makes bizzare, and stammeringly incoherent responses that stand out from sheer stupidity, it will be noticed. The media narrative only counts for so much here. If she sends the message that she is shockingly ignorant it will be damaging.

[CarbonDate]

31. It's not a genius game of expectations management....

...that has set this bar so low. It's her own pathetic performances.

As for whether she'll exceed expectations? It's always darkest before it goes pitch black. I think we'll all be stunned at how much she embarrasses herself, and we'll be watching Joe Biden there with a look of pity on his face while she's speaking.

I'm expecting her to completely self-destruct before our eyes, and I'm really looking forward to it.

[Fluffdaddy]

35. Like Bush Did

[Mike Daniels]

39. A lot of people thought McCain was going to bottom out as well.

If McCain hadn't looked like a grumpy old man the entire debate and had a least made eye contact with Obama a few times he would have come off better but he wasn't the embarassment people seemed to be wishing for based on his conduct earlier in the week.

Since it doesn't sound like Biden can directly challenge her I imagine that Palin will manage to come off as "capable" as long as she gets the sound bites right. Once the debate is over they can stick her back in the van and limit her to teleprompter assisted stumping until November.

[melody]

3. Ah, it's Sunday, it must be a concern troll

Yeah, like anyone is really worried about the VP debate.

[anonymous171]

5. Correct. Dan Quayle got totally owned but he and Bush still won the election.

[Orsino]

7. But did Quayle's debate performance cause a dip in poll numbers?

I think his is the historically relevant comparison. If any veep candidate can change those numbers, Palin can.

[anonymous171]

9. According to Wikipedia:

Democratic candidate Lloyd Bentsen said in rebuttal, "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy," to which a noticeably surprised and unprepared Quayle replied, "That was really uncalled for, Senator," as both applause and boos were heard from the debate audience. Bentsen replied that it was Quayle who had made the initial comparison. Quayle's reaction to Bentsen's comment was played and replayed by the Democrats in their subsequent television ads as an announcer intoned: "Quayle: just a heartbeat away." Comedians exploited the exchange, and an increasing number of editorial cartoons depicted Quayle as an infant or child. Though the controversy generated much press, public opinion polls did not significantly change, and the Republicans maintained a solid lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Quayle#Vice_Presidential_candidate

[Orsino]

11. And if, as others have noted...

...the bar is already set ridiculously low, there may be no effect. We can bet that the campaign is doing everything it can to ensure she can't make a major goof.

Perhaps if all she does is flail about as she's been doing, there would be no net loss. If America isn't taking the debate any more seriously than they do a softball appearance with Couric, that's that.

The ratings of Biden-Palin may be higher, in which case the Palin Effect could be significant.

[Mike Daniels]

40. I won't go so far as other posters have in suggesting that she deliberately played dumb last week

However, last week kind of set the bar on what to expect. Therefore, any performance that's seen as halfway competent will reflect well on her.

At that point it's up to the Obama camp to convince people that halfway competent isn't going to cut it if Palin should find herself president before McCain serves out his term .

[optimisticin08]

37. good point.

I also think Palin is being defined as a joke the last week and she is also a far right winger which wont help Mcain with moderates.

[RichGirl]

6. Actually...this could be a first.

This could be the first VP debate that does changes polls and it will be in our favor.

[DiamondKrosse]

10. or if it gets the huge ratings

Sarah Palin brings along and Biden puts his feet in his mouth as he does so often, then it COULD help Mccain. Palin is the lifevest around John McCain right now

[CarbonDate]

33. And if God touches that little brain of hers for five minutes....

...and makes her give the speech of her life, why then we'll believe that miracles really can come true!

[samsingh]

8. gaffe free is the key

[Sugarcoated]

13. . . . is the key to McFoolish not losing too many points in the polls

because Palin's gaffes have been more plentiful and more damaging.

[samsingh]

15. if biden can avoid a gaffe and pallin is just herself - we'll be in great shape

[Sugarcoated]

18. I think she's more gaffe prone than Biden

or, you can look at it as just being herself. I think the Biden gaffe meme is way overblown. He does come out with some off message things, but nothing fatal. McFool makes more gaffes than Biden.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. The best the gop can hope for is that she doesn't look like the snl caricature of herself.

As far as doing well, that would REALLY be an achievement.

[Starlight]

22. Palin can read a prepared speech, but she's a total mess when she speaks extemporaneously.

[Tiggeroshii]

29. Exactly. Anything that involves thinking on her own is a tough call for her...

[against all enemies]

14. This one might.

[Kahuna]

16. If Palen does well, a lot of women may decide to "give her a chance." nt

[D23MIURG23]

23. When has she ever done well without a script?

Certainly not in any of the interviews she has given.

[BlooInBloo]

17. The suggestion that we're going to "lose" the VP debate is just stupid.

[H2O Man]

34. Right.

[Support the ACLU]

19. Nixon won with Agnew, HW Bush won with Quayle, McCain's loss will not be the result of Palin

For that matter, Biden's continued gaffes ("FDR" went on "TV" to address the "stock market crash" -- Oh God, where to start?!) will NOT have any affect on Obama's campaign.

[book_worm]

24. Not normally, but this VP debate might make a difference

[JoePhilly]

25. She is irrelevant in the debate.

The right wing base would vote for her even if she suddenly sprouted a tail.

McCain's selection of Palin was designed to get perhaps a 5 point bounce with the crazy far right who might have stayed home to handle snakes that day.

She could take a dump on the constitution and that group would still support her.

They also hope that some small segment of the "undecideds" are so stupid that they will vote for McCain's "reputation" and against the black guy Hannity doesn't like.

[nomorewhopper]

26. palin is proving the exception that "people don't vote for the bottom of the ticket"

she's scaring the shit out of people, and convincing them that she in fact, simply is not up for the job. people see her speaking and they think, "holy shit, we simply can not let somebody like that run our country".

[FatDave]

27. Tell that to this guy

[TheKentuckian]

28. An unacceptable performance may well hurt McCain

He's not doing so hot himself, he's 72 and would be the oldest person ever elected, he's had some RECENT bouts with cancer, and it could ignite a judgment problem.

This ain't Bush or Nixon we're going against. Arguably two of our most credentialed candidates ever, bot reasonably in their primes.

Yes, her bar will be low but if she's nothing but semi-contextual talking points then her bar won't be low enough.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

30. Here's the problem: Palin is a woman and support from Independent and Democratic

white women is still fragile. If Biden breathes at Palin wrong--even if it's just a cough--rest assured that the M$M will call him sexist or condescending. In this case, comparing Palin to Quayle is irrelevant. She could come across as a sympathetic figure...or be depicted by the wingnuts and the media that that, if Biden comes across as too knowledgeable. No matter how perfect he is, since he's obviously the more experienced candidate, they'll proclaim her the victor for pronouncing "Ahmadinajad" correctly.

[Kahuna]

32. You called it perfect. This thread is silly IMHO. There are no apples

to compare with apples in this instance since Palin is only the second woman to be on a major presidential ticket.

[eshfemme]

36. The VP debates actually would do more potential harm to McCain than to Obama.

Even if the MSM and everyone else decrees that Joe lost or was sexist or whatever BS the Republicans come up with, it is still unquestionable that Joe is qualified to be President and thus, is a great VP. The traditional thinking of "You're voting for the top of the ticket" fits here too because Obama is considerably younger compared to McCain while assassination fears have eased for Obama with the Secret Service's help. Plus, Joe's made so many little gaffes that he's pretty much gaffe-proof. The Republicans can try to make a big deal out of whatever supposed misstep Joe does but Joe's so fucking genial that it'd be really easy to spin it as "WTF are you picking on Big Joe for?" especially since Joe's been much more forthcoming and welcoming with the press than Palin has. So, like Obama, Joe also has a preternatural tendency to just brush things off and let them slide right off his back.

Not so with the McCain-Palin ticket. A fuck up on Palin's part, which is increasingly certain, would kill the diminishing views of Palin as a qualified candidate with executive experience (please note my dripping sarcasm on that retarded fucking phrase :sarcasm:). And a view of Palin as a valid and experienced addition to the ticket is also closely intertwined with McCain's image as a maverick/reformer so McCain has a greater need to promote Palin than Barack needs to do with Joe. Also, if Palin fails, McCain fails because then his image as a maverick gets redefined as maverick/fickle rather than maverick/outsider. This is all about semantics and connotations here, which are rather important in politics despite the strong current of anti-intellectualism or the common tendency to abuse the English language.

So yes, I don't think we need to worry too much.

[depakid]

38. This one's more important than most- considering worries about McCain's health