Obama is Winning, But Don't Tell Anyone!

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/28/obama-is-winning-but-don-t-tell-anyone.aspx

Obama is Winning, But Don't Tell Anyone!

Nate Silver will surely have a more comprehensive (and intelligent) take on all of today's polls soon enough, but for now here is where we stand:

Gallup: Obama +8

Rassmussen: Obama +6

Hotline: Obama +5

As we have seen all year, the daily tracking polls tend to operate within a narrower range than a number of the newspaper/network surveys that only come out periodically. Another way of putting this would be to say that unless something noteable happens very soon, polls next week will begin to show Obama with a double digit lead nationally (The Washington Post and ABC News had a nine-point spread last week). Meanwhile, Gallup has released a separate poll that shows voters judged Obama the winner of last week's debate with John McCain.

The question, then, is this: When will the media stop referring to the candidates, in the words of today's New York Times, as "locked in a tight battle"? The question is a pertinent one because after an unscientific (if not altogether cursory) sampling of friends and family members over a lovely weekend (all of whom, gaspingly, are Obama supporters), the only available, reasonable conclusion is that most Democrats seem to be under the following two impressions:

1. The race could not be any closer.

2. The Palin pick, while irresponsible and reckless, has given the GOP a huge boost.

Now, this may have something to do with a certain inherent liberal pessimism, or with experiences undergone over the past two election cycles, or with fatalism about the idea that the country is finally "ready" to elect a black president. But it also might have something to do with the media's fervent desire to see the race as a nailbiter (which, of course, it very well may turn out to be). But if the election were held today, the national vote (if not the electoral college tally) would look a lot closer to Bush-Dukakis than most people seem willing to concede.

There might be a certain utility in not getting overcofident, especially where it concerns one's heart (be pessimistic!!--it makes losing much, much easier), but the truth of the matter is that right now, Obama is comfortably ahead. In the name of fairness alone, that should be reported on.

--Isaac Chotiner

[Arkana]

1. They won't, and I'm glad they're not this time.

It makes it harder for people to get complacent and think they don't need to bother because Obama has it in the bag.

[BrklynLiberal]

18. I agree. I believe overconfidence is the evil twin brother of complacency.

[Arkana]

23. I would have said it was the bastard child of complacency and the inbred half-brother

of ignorance, but yours is good too.

[azmouse]

2. Mum's the word....

GOBAMA!! :woohoo:

[ingac70]

3. Let the media keep reporting its "close"...

I want the repukes to be shocked on election night.

[babylonsister]

4. I don't know about that; the fact that he's winning by a good margin

also needs to get out there. That way, they might be less inclined to steal it.

[tulsakatz]

12. I have mixed feelings about that....

remember the '06 election? And when Rove bragged about having 'the math'?

I think they tried to steal it, they just didn't expect to lose by so much so in other words, they underestimated the number of votes to steal.

Having said that, I do think it's a good idea to win by a larger margin....it makes it less likely that they'll try to steal by such a large degree....

[tblue]

19. Yes. Win big enough so they can't steal it.

And, the polls reporting a tight race will actually bring out our base, donations, and volunteers. We must work and behave as if we are 15 points behind.

I agree with everything you said. They did everything they could to steal every election since at least 2000. In 2006, they just didn't steal quite enough. Oh, and I believe they really wanted Hillary to win our nomination, and they tried to rig the election, but didn't quite make it. So, yes, they can and will lose.

[SheilaT]

5. What I'm unclear about

is what exactly does the +8, +6, and +5 refer to? Up that much from what point?

Thanks.

[babylonsister]

6. Go to the link in the OP: there's further explanations in links there. Here's

gallup's link:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-50-42-Lead.aspx

[SheilaT]

20. I guess in this case the numbers mean the spread

between them.

I think sometimes the plus or minus numbers mean the change since some earlier time.

In any case, I find it hard to believe that the polling isn't more like 70% Obama, 20% McCain and 10% other. And I hope that even these polls are greatly underestimating the young and first-time voter turnout for Obama come November.

[deadmessengers]

7. Obama's blowing him out, and everyone needs to know it.

The more people think that Obama's running away with it, the harder it will be for the GOP election engineers to rig this one. People were able to swallow the thefts in 2000 and 2004 because the pre-election polls were close enough to make it plausible. But, if we're expecting an Obama blowout, and we get a McLame razor-thin victory, that's going to make people stand up and say "bullshit".

[Willo]

10. I agree with that!

[babylonsister]

11. That's what I said upthread; agreed, everyone needs to know it. nt

[PerfectSage]

8. How do you like this Nate Silver map?

[babylonsister]

13. Looks sweeeeet to me. nt

[BlooInBloo]

9. In fairness, it's not as though DUers are any better...

With their daily rants about how it's-over-we're-doomed.

You can blame the media for handing out shit, but who do you blame for *eating* it?

[babylonsister]

14. You shouldn't generalize; there are lots of us why don't

promote that kind of thinking.

[BlooInBloo]

15. (shrug) I didn't say *all* DUers.

[OhioChick]

16. K&R

:kick:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. sssssssh!

:kick:

[Jennicut]

21. The Washington Post poll does not seem like an outlier any more

9 points ahead does not seem crazy anymore now. I think as long as we are 5-7 points ahead they cannot steal it. Lets all keep working harder! I want to win this thing and celebrate on DU afterwards.

[nomorewhopper]

22. just 2 days ago it was 3 point margin with +- 2 point margin of error

the +8 is very, very new and may not reflect reality. before obama is described as having a comfortable lead, the trend should maintain a week or so. don't worry, the press WILL pick up on it, but it's going to be a day or three to see if this margin increases or decreases.

i must say, the trends are looking VERY good right now!