tiptoe
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Mon Oct-06-08 06:24 PM
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10/5 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): STATE FUNDING ALLOCATION (FUNCTION OF POLL SPREAD AND EV) |
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2008 ELECTION MODELA Monte Carlo Electoral Vote SimulationUpdated: October 5 4:38 PM 2
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Summary Aggregate Polls, Projections and Graphs
Sensitivity Analysis: Five Undecided Vote Scenarios
National Polls, State Polls and Projection Tables
Election Calculator Model
Aggregate State Polls and Projections National Poll Moving Average Projection Trend Electoral Vote and Win Probability Electoral Vote and Vote Share Sensitivity Analysis: Effects of Undecided Voters
Battleground States: Win Probabilities Monte Carlo Simulation: Electoral Vote Frequency Monte Carlo Simulation: 5000 Election Trials Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Electoral Vote Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Vote Share
2004 Election Model Summary
Final State and National Polls, Projections, Exit Polls, Recorded Vote
Current Summary Statistics State Model Aggregate Average Projection (2-party) Electoral Vote Monte Carlo Trial Wins
National Model 5-Poll Average Projection (2-party)
Obama 49.37 52.73 358 5000
50.00 54.56
McCain 45.03 47.27 180 0
42.40 45.44
weighted average based on 2004 recorded vote Base case scenario: 60% Undecided Vote to Obama EV = ∑ state win probability (i) * EV(i), i=1,51 states Simulated electoral vote (random number vs. state win probability)
Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Marist 60% Undecided vote to Obama
Optimal Resource Allocation (Key States)A new feature of the model is a ranking measure of optimal allocation of resources for key states. The allocation will be highest for the most competitive battleground states (high electoral vote and low polling spread). These are the five highest ranked states and allocation percentages (see the State model): 1- FL (19.7), 2- NC (15.3), 3-MO (12.8), 4-IN (11.2), 5-OH (8.8). In other words, these states are where Obama should spend most (68%) of his money. http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.pdf
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demosincebirth
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Mon Oct-06-08 06:53 PM
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