While we concentrate on the top line numbers of polls, i.e. whether somebody is for Obama or McCain, campaigns don't really bother with that much.
Plouffe gave an update at the convention where he admitted that they hardly look at the top line in any poll.
The reason? Its the crosstabs that are showing where public opinion is headed and since the election isn't being held today then the top line numbers are irrelevant its where the numbers are heading.
Todd gave some very surprising statistics on the crosstabs. Some of it was also reported on MSNBC.COM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27155454/1) huge difference between Obama's favorables and unfavorables 64 versus 33
This is a big difference this late in the campaign. What is so unusual is that Obama's unfavorable's went down from 36 to 33. This is somewhat unprecedented as almost always negatives go up as a campaign progresses. The most determantive number in a campaign is not the positives but the negatives. These low negatives are a good sign that the polling numbers are not only firm but likely to improve for Obama. What accounts for this - the debates
Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.
This means that Obama's even handed town in a debate and his "John's right" meme, which drove DU crazy, had a major impact on this election.
2) McCain's negatives go up so that his favorable/unfavorable is now 54/45
Todd explained that most of that 9 point jump for McCain was that his unfavorables among Democrats went from 70% to 95% (for example). This is also good because it means that Obama's base remains highly polarized vis a vis the Republicans and portends a very high Democratic turn out.
3) Telling difference on the Economy
Another huge difference between Obama and McCain - on the economy
Obama is winning "economy voters" by 62 percent to 33 percent, nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
4) And for the first time on taxes
On taxes, an issue that often benefits Republicans and that McCain has worked aggressively to highlight, Obama holds a significant lead for the first time as voters gave the Democrat an 11-point edge on whom they trust to handle tax policy.
5) Labelling Obama as radical/risky/better leader - having no effect
Nor has there been evident progress for the GOP campaign to label Obama as an extreme liberal: Fifty-five percent of voters see the Democrat as "about right" ideologically, and although 37 percent see him as "too liberal," that is about the same as it was in June. By contrast, the percentage seeing McCain as "too conservative" is up to 42 percent, higher than it was four months ago.
McCain's efforts to portray Obama as a risky choice do not appear to have worked, either. In fact, voters are likelier to describe the Republican candidate that way, and although 29 percent said they consider Obama a "very safe" choice for president, 18 percent said the same for McCain. Voters were evenly divided on the question of whether McCain is safe or risky; 55 percent said Obama is safe, while 45 percent described the Democrat as risky
Yet on the broader question of leadership, voters gave Obama a 14-point advantage, saying, by 54 percent to 40 percent, that he is a "stronger leader" than McCain. The two were about tied on that question in late September, and McCain held a 13-point edge on strong leadership in early March before the Democratic nomination battle wound down.
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