CNN reports: McCain wins in come-from-behind "shocker".

[FlyingSquirrel]

November 5, 2008

The Bradley Effect seems to have gripped much of the nation yesterday, as Republican John McCain pulled out a surprising come-from-behind victory over Democrat Barack Obama. Obama was seeking to become the first African-American president.

McCain had been behind by as many as 170 Electoral Votes by some calculations, with only two and a half weeks to go in the race. However, some negative advertising by both the McCain campaign and 527 groups appeared to have resonated with many voters, causing them uncertainty about the Obama's trustworthiness. This caused a tightening of the race in its final week.

McCain received 157 EV from traditionally "Red" states (a push by Obama in Nebraska, which divides its Electoral Votes up, gave him 1 EV there however.)

Close races in Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, and North Carolina all went McCain's way - both Nevada and North Carolina were decided by less than a 2% difference. All of those states had gone to Bush in the 2004 election.

This brought McCain's total up to 204 Electoral Votes, with 66 more needed.

The Bradley Effect came into play most clearly in Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado. (See more analysis about the Bradley Effect http://news.aol.com/elections/article/could-the-bradley-effect-hurt-obama/210605">here.) Though most polls showed Obama with an average 3-7% lead in those states, there were some exceptions. A Fox/Rasmussen poll in Virginia showed Obama with only a 1-point lead there; a Suffolk poll in Colorado showed Obama with only a 4-point lead with 7% undecided. The majority of those voters appear to have broken McCain's way in the final days.

The biggest controversies occurred once again in Ohio and Florida. Though Democrats had registered tens of thousands of new voters in each state, Republican challenges to some of those registrations, as well as voter-roll "purges" and changes in polling locations, caused long lines at many polling places and forced many to vote on "provisional ballots". Though Democrats are still attempting to get many of these counted, this is not expected to change the outcome in either state.

The final tally was: McCain 273, Obama 265.

Obama improved upon John Kerry's 2004 total by 13 Electoral Votes with victories in New Mexico and Iowa, plus one of Nebraska's Electoral Votes; however in the end this was not quite enough for him.

McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, becomes the first female Vice President of the United States.

-------

This could happen. Take nothing for granted.

[Clio the Leo]

1. Jim, why does Mr. Spock have a goatee? NT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. It Reminds Me Of The Fake News Releases The Kids Post On The ESPN Board

What a waste of Skinner's bandwidth...

[jazzjunkysue]

15. But, I don't see a dagger in his belt!

[MrModerate]

2. Bite your tongue! (Unplug your keyboard?) n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

3. Is CNN hallucinating again?

[movonne]

4. Mass suicide..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. What Is The Point Of The Thread?

If people are lying to pollsters and won't vote for an African American this whole endeavor has been an exercise in futility...

[FlyingSquirrel]

The point is that we cannot take anything for granted

and this election is still close enough to steal once again.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Then We Might As Well Steel Ourselves For A Loss

That's what a competent mental health professional would suggest...

[Phx_Dem]

18. Exactly right. It's the home stretch, we need to unload all of

our energy and sprint to the finish line, just a like a long-distance runner would do. A runner wouldn't think, "well gee, I'm so far ahead I think I'll just walk to the finish line."

For a runner it's all about their "time."

For Obama, it's all about the number of votes. It's not about getting enough to win, it's about getting every fucking vote we possibly can.

[LaurenG]

6. That's messed up.

x( The freeps will love this though.

[elkston]

7. Your "satire" is not funny. n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. It's not intended to be.

[Phx_Dem]

19. Agreed. It's not funny, it's scary as hell and it should be!

[Sukie]

12. Agree with that.

What is the point to this? Seriously.

[Marsala]

8. In other news, the Chicago Cubs celebrated their World Series victory n/t

[Tiggeroshii]

11. ooopsnm

deletedpost

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. Ah, but they won't be talking about averages.

They'll be talking about how one particular poll turned out to be more accurate than all the others.

In Virginia's case, right now there's a Fox/Rasmussen poll that shows Obama with only a 3-point lead and 2% undecided. All they have to do is say that poll was apparently more accurate than the others, that the undecideds broke for McCain, and that a few people changed their minds in the polling booths due to the Bradley effect.

[Tiggeroshii]

25. Which goes to show that we can't rest or be overconfident

Because anything can happen. The higher those poll numbers are before and on election day, the better. Obama said it right when he said "I got two words for you: New Hampshire"

[Solomon]

13. Well, we all knew from the moment that Obama got the nomination

that this would be the gameplan, but


NOT THIS TIME!

[RayOfHope]

17. Honestly? I got physically ill reading that. I just don't know what I would do, it would be so bad.

Bad for me, bad for you, bad for America.

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. I got physically ill writing it, so we're even.

:(

Essentially the scenario would be McCain taking all the Bush 2004 states except NM and IA (and 1 EV in NE). Bush got 286 in 2004, so subtracting 13 EV from it would still give McCain the victory.

I don't think it will happen but I'm still :scared: - many things have not changed since 2004 and Diebold is one of them.

[FrenchieCat]

21. So let's see......

what would you suggest Barack do? Turn White?

Your approach is wrong and a sad one for us to have to entertain, because The already debunked "Bradley Effect" is based on race, something that Barack Obama cannot do anything about....as he has done all that he could to keep race out of this contest, although others
persist.

What I say to you is be careful what you wish for, because what you are promoting, perhaps
without realizing it, in lowering the morale of DUers with this OP. That is never a good thing.
Poll manipulation is what the media uses to propagandize and to effectively affect public opinion.
The difference with that is at least polls numbers can be looked at and then worked on. Your suggestion that race will be a bigger factor than we realize is different in that THERE AIN'T A MOTHERFUCKING THING THAT WE, HERE AT THIS FORUM, CAN DO ABOUT IT.

That is why this post is tragic. You do us a disservice similar to CNN and other networks hawking this same sentiment.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. What Frenchie Said

This is the worst thread in the world!

[FlyingSquirrel]

24. I'm not hawking their sentiments, I'm showing what they'll report

if the election is stolen, and reminding people that there is still a battle going on which has not been won no matter how good it looks.

My morale is still up and I don't want to lower anyone else's either. But high morale alone doesn't win an election.

[FrenchieCat]

28. Actually, just as you are incorrect about the "Bradley Effect", so are you

about how morale works in elections.

In Close Contests, poor Democratic morale was Enough to Swing the Election
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6996468

[FlyingSquirrel]

33. I >>>Know>>> that the Bradley effect is BS. As far as morale goes,

you better have a little talk with Barack because he's cautioning us all just like I am.

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Chris%20Brown/blog/&blogId=4864

At a breakfast fundraiser this morning, Obama used the example of the New Hampshire primary, when he lost to Hillary Rodham Clinton after a huge win in Iowa, to warn his supporters against overconfidence, Carrie Budoff Brown reports.

Otherwise, they may get "spanked," he said.

“For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire,” Mr. Obama told top contributors at the Metropolitan Club in Manhattan. “I’ve been in these positions before when we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked.”

He added, “That’s another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me, so we want to make sure that we are closing strong, running through the tape.”

[FrenchieCat]

35. There is a huge difference in what Barack is talking about,

and your CNN make believe article. If you don't see that difference, than I cannot help you.

[FlyingSquirrel]

36. Oh well. My intentions were good anyway. I expected flak though

and I got it.. it's important to be able to think like the opposition and see what they may be thinking. But I guess this isn't a very popular thing to do on DU. No biggie, I'll let it drop.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. If You Know They

If you know they are going to steal the election and use the "Bradley Effect" as an explanation for the discrepancy between the final pre- election and exit polls and the results what do you suggest we do?


And how are they going to coordinate this mass theft when many Supervisors of Elections and Secretaries of States are Democrats?

[Bucky]

30. Did you really think that this post is about the Bradley Effect?

[elkston]

31. Exactly. Barack cannot change that he is black. There is no going back.

And your "doomsday scenario" post helps no one.

[peace frog]

23. Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my ass!

Nothing up my sleeve ---- PRESTO!

[Bucky]

26. Fuck you. Why can't you just smile and skip along like the rest of us?

I worry less knowing Chuck Hagel is on the verge of supporting Obama.

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. :-D

No kiddin'. I don't mind taking the flak for this post though. Obama said himself, "I've got two words for you: New and Hampshire."

[Matariki]

32. Wish we had that 'skip' option still...

[bigdarryl]

34. How about THIS!!!!!

CNN reports Obama wins in a suprising largest LANDSLIDE!!! in Presidential history.He got a surprising huge number of white votes that no pollsters didn't picked up 57% of the white vote.

[peace frog]

37. "Fuck you. Why can't you just gloom 'n' doom

like the rest of 'em?"

:toast: :evilgrin: