That's why I love RealClearPolitics... "You can't Cherry-Pick results!"

[aaaaaa5a]

This is a long reaction to the McCain camp comparing their polling situation to Al Gore's in 2000.



Here are all of the national polls taken between 10/23 and 10/26 on the 2000 race.


The McCain camp "cherry picked" one poll showing Gore way behind. However if you look at all of the polling most of the numbers show a very competitive race within the margin of error. In fact 4 national polls taken during that time span have Gore in the lead.

Note, with the exception of the CNN/Gallup poll, neither candidate hit 50% in any other national poll. In fact the numbers how the election had many "undecideds" late in the race.

A further examination of the Gallup number shows tremendous fluctuations, which is what you would get with a lot of undecideds.

For instance on 10/26 Bush lead by 13. But on 10/25 he led by 7. And on 10/23 GORE LED BY 1. That is a whopping 14 POINT SWING in the Gallup poll in JUST 3 DAYS! There has been nothing (including the conventions) that has been that volatile in the current race.


In fact looking at all of the polling done over that period, Today we would be calling the 10/26 number an outlier.

Take a look.

ABC # 10/26............................................................. 49 45 4 1 4


CNN/TIME 10/26......................................................... 49 43 3 1 6


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/26............................................ 52 39 4 1 13 BUSH LEADS BY 13!!!!!!!!!!


HARRIS ^ 10/26.......................................................... 48 43 5 1 5


REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/26................................................. 43 45 4 1 - 2 GORE LEADS BY 2 (SAME DAY POLL!)


VOTER.COM ^ # 10/26..................................................... 43 40 4 1 3


ABC # 10/25............................................................. 48 45 3 1 3


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/25............................................ 49 42 3 1 7


DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 10/25............................................. 44 46 5 2 - 2.... Gore leads


REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/25................................................. 43 45 4 1 - 2.... Gore leads


VOTER.COM ^ # 10/25..................................................... 45 40 4 1 5


ABC # 10/24,,........................................................... 48 46 3 1 2


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/24............................................ 48 43 3 1 5


REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/24................................................. 42 45 4 1 -..... Gore leads


VOTER.COM ^ # 10/24..................................................... 44 40 4 1 4


ABC # 10/23............................................................. 47 46 3 1 1


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/23............................................ 45 46 3 1 - 1 GORE LEADS BY 1 IN THE GALLUP POLL, YET JUST 3 DAYS LATER HE'S DOWN 13???????? IN THE SAME POLL!!!!!


REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/23................................................. 44 42 5 1 2


VOTER.COM ^ # 10/23..................................................... 45 39 5 1 6


WIRTHLIN (R) 10/23...................................................... 47 43 4 2 4



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Now here are the current (Obama/McCain) National numbers 10/23 to the present. This includes Rasmussen which this morning game Obama an 8 point lead.


First, ALL OF THEM show Obama with the lead. I can't find one National poll including the AP poll where Evangelicals made up 44% of the survey where McCain was ahead.


Secondly, the polls are far more consistent. Rasmussen fluctuates between 5-8 points regardless of what's going on. Unlike the year 2000, Gallup has been steady, within 3 points (either way) for several weeks.

Lastly, in 7 of the 9 polls completed in the last 3 days, Obama has topped 50%. This means voters are more "locked in" to their voting choice. This is probably why the National Polls are far less volatile than they were in 2000. Both Gore and Bush were at times still in the low to mid 40s.




Rasmussen Reports 10/22 - 10/24........................................52 44 Obama +8


Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/22 - 10/24.................................... 51 42 Obama +9


Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23.................................................53 41 Obama +12


Gallup (Traditional)* 10/21 - 10/23....................................50 45 Obama +5


Gallup (Expanded)* 10/21 - 10/23.......................................51 44 Obama +7


Hotline/FD 10/21 - 10/23...............................................50 43 Obama +7


ABC News/Wash Post 10/20 - 10/23.......................................53 44 Obama +9


GWU/Battleground 10/19 - 10/23..........................................49 46 Obama +3


IBD/TIPP 10/19 - 10/23...................................................46 42 Obama +4




In short, what the McCain campaign did in highlighting the 53-39 poll from 2000, is no different than conservative media outlets promoting the flawed AP poll today. Both are outliers. And it represents bad science, and terrible reporting.


That's why I always use the RealClearpolitics.com average. It limits the impact of crazy, random results on both sides.