PPP Ohio poll: Obama 51-McCain 44

[DeepBlueDem]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/friday-night-special-obama-leads-in.html

Barack Obama is up by seven points in Ohio, a result almost identical to a PPP poll conducted in early October that showed the Democratic nominee leading by six points in the state.

There haven't been any major shifts in the numbers since that time. Obama is doing well for the following reasons:

-A 48-36 lead with independents.

-Strong party unity. Ohio was one state where a Puma effect really did show itself over the summer. But now Obama is winning by almost the same margin with Democrats- 86-10- as McCain is with Republicans- 87-11.

-Obama is keeping it competitive with white voters. McCain only has a 49-46 lead with them, and given the state's 12% black population and their almost unanimous support for Obama, he really needs to be up at least ten with whites to take the state.

-60% of voters in the state list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 63-33 lead with them, giving him an 18 point lead in the grand scheme of the poll based on those respondents. McCain leads by 11 with folks who list anything else as their top issue.

-Obama leads 55-24 with folks who didn't vote in 2004. They better vote!!

[DCBob]

1. Excellent! Ohio appears to be stabilizing with Obama consistently up,

Looks like a blue Ohio this year!

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. We have consistent polling data showing Ohio to be going the way of Pennsylvania

With perhaps a few points deducted because it is, after all, Ohio.

When the first polls showed a huge lead in PA, everybody said "I don't believe that!" Within a week, all the polls showed that lead. It's quite real. I'd say the same thing is happening to Ohio now, and this is why you see the level of dejection and vitriol coming out of the right. They could stand, back then, to lose Pennsylvania, but they cannot lose Ohio in the same way.

I think these polls are accurate. I think you had a huge swing to Obama after the third debate and the Powell endorsement, which people in the press are still downplaying. I think Obama also timed his strategy in Ohio perfectly, holding off on campaigning there until three weeks out. Nothing will demoralize the GOP better than multiple polls showing a big defecit for McCain in Ohio.

At this point, we're seeing a very real phenomenon: people can't picture McCain as President. Obama baited him into going consistently negative, and people cannot imagine a purely negative candidate in office. It's a no-win situation for McCain, because going positive at this late stage will feel like a desperate ruse: he's already been tagged as the angry, negative candidate. Books will be written on how effectively Obama and his team manipulated the McCain strategists into bad decision after bad decision.

I wouldn't sday Ohio is a done deal yet (as i DO say for PA: it's over in PA), but it's pretty damn close to being a done deal.