Oct 30th - BEST SHOT SNAPSHOT - 7% Lead of Better - CAN'T DO IT

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Yesterday, all we needed was safe Obama plus the state with the highest lead, VA, to win.

Today, we have to dip down to states with 6% lead or better.



OCTOBER 30th BEST SHOT SNAPSHOT - 6% Lead or Better


Safe Obama (RCP >10 pts).................................238

Best Shot States and Lead Over 6% By Time Zone:

VA......7.6 (-1.1).....13 EVs.......Running Total......251 Polls close at 7pm Eastern

PA......9.5 (-.8)........21 EVs......Running Total......272 Polls close at 8pm Eastern
...............................................................................We win here! :loveya: :loveya:

NM......7.3 (-)...........5 EVs.......Running Total..... 277

CO......6.5 (.7) .........9 EVs.......Running Total..... 286

NV......7.4 (-.1) ........5 EVs.......Running Total......291 We win here if they bogus up "Non-Paper-Trail PA"

[FrenchieCat]

1. Let's make it so!

Amen!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. Amen FC !!! I was so excited yesterday - hold PA and all we

needed was VA. My fingernails are all bitten off! Hurry Tuesday !

[PaDem]

5. CO would suffice in that scenario........

with PA, IA, NH, NM we're at 264.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. What I (and RCP) considers safe or solid is a 10% or more lead

So, yesterday, safe was 259 (including NH, PA, IA)

The highest lead after that was VA (13) = 272

NM, NV, and CO were gravy after that - all with 7+ point leads

I just list them in order of the highest lead. But you are very right, there
are probably many combinations. We'll do it, this chart just made me relax more. :)

[dennis4868]

2. do those state polls...

take into consideration the tighter numbers from Mason Dixon?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Yes - really dragged down PA

But these are all the same end date - 10-28

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama +11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. On the brighter side - VA - They added in 2 polls with 4 pt leads

that drove that one down. But - CNN's the latest and it looks good

CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 774 LV 3.5 53 44 Obama +9
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 671 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Great info, but why not list these states in order of time zone, east to west

Safe Obama (RCP >10 pts).................................238

Best Shot States and Lead:

PA......9.5 (-.8)........21 EVs......Running Total......259

VA......7.6 (-1.1).....13 EVs.......Running Total......272 We win here!

CO......6.5 (.7) .........9 EVs.......Running Total..... 281

NV......7.4 (-.1) ........5 EVs.......Running Total......286

NM......7.3 (-)...........5 EVs.......Running Total..... 291




Your way makes it look like we need the western states to win, we don't. They are the insurance so that if we lose VA then those 3 can make up for it.

[BeFree]

9. Well

Pa has no paper trail. So don't count on it.

with 238 safe and the 32 from VA, CO, NM and NV, makes 270. A squeaker.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. my only hope is that the Bushies didn't bogus up PA in 2004 (as

far as I know) and let Kerry have it legitimately. And, maybe they don't
have the fraud apparatus going there. dreamer, huh.

Yes, squeaker - but - there are other states with leads less than 6%

[Motown_Johnny]

12. I am not counting on it, but I am betting the Obama team has some plan to inspect the machines after

the vote and before the certification of the vote totals to try and find tampering.

I can't bet on it but Obama has been 3 steps ahead of everyone all the way through this process. I can't imagine him suddenly being caught flat footed on such an important and obvious issue.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. No, I don't either. This is probably not a new idea - but it struck

me - if we are worried about transmission tampering during central upload - why not have
an electronic file shipped to another location - or for that matter several locations
with a different encryption?

[BeFree]

17. yeah

The campaign has been holding the cards close. Let us hope they know more than what they've been letting on.

It will be very tough to get the skinny on the machines especially with no paper trail.

I think Obama squeaks by and that way the machines kind of fade into the background allowing them to do their dirty work another day.

Then there are the congressional races, which I think will be ripped off by at least 50%. Need to watch those.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Hey, that would be a good way to look at it too. This way is just

to show which ones we are most likely to get. It makes me feel better to ignore all the
hype and just think, hell, all we have to do is hold PA and pick up these 3-4.

Are NM and CO in Mountain Time? PA, VA eastern

[fizzgig]

13. yes, both are mountain

[Motown_Johnny]

14. Yes CO and NM are Mountain, and PA / VA in eastern

but if you look at the margins listed then PA should be first and VA second. Same as the way it works out with time zones

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. Thanks. I changed it. That worked out good !! Wonder when

the polls close in PA and VA

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. VA polls close at 7pm, PA 8pm

[phrigndumass]

19. I like how you're showing it by time zone :)

K/R :hi: