Good Article on the "PA Bradley Effect" Lynn Swann OUTPERFORMED POLLS in PA Govenors race!

[aaaaaa5a]

This is why the polling out of Pennsylvania is accurate. Obama WILL CARRY THE KEYSTONE STATE.


Here is a "snip" of the article. It's a little long but a good read!





We argue that they are not right, that there is no evidence to support their conclusion, and that the so called Bradley effect in Pennsylvania is largely a phantom fear without substance or effect. Moreover we believe Obama is as likely to out-perform as he is to under-perform his polls on Election Day.

Congressman Murtha's assertions seem easiest to dismiss. They are based on no real evidence and he links them to anecdote and his "experiences." In fact, he has backed away from them now and seems satisfied to relegate his constituents to the status of ''redneck'' rather than racist.

Rendell's conclusion fares no better. In 2006 he had as his opponent an African American and former football legend, Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver Lynn Swann. Rendell won by 20 percentage points, while the Real Clear Politics final average had him ahead by 21.8 percent. No Bradley effect apparent there. Indeed if anyone was "Bradley-ed" it was Rendell himself.


Full article here.

http://www.mcall.com/news/opinion/anotherview/all-madonna11-1.6654247oct31,0,1252116.story







Now, this is my own two cents on the PA Bradely effect from stuff I've saved on my computer.


In the 2008 Democratic Primary the Realclearpolitics average for the race and the final result were:

Pennsylvania
RCP polling average.... Clinton +6.1
Final Results.......... Clinton + 9.2


The difference between the average spread in the RCP polling average and the final vote tally was just 3.1 points. This was actually among the most accurately polled results in the entire Democratic primary race.


Tonight, Obama's RCP polling average lead is 9.3 points with just 4 days to go.


Guys, Obama is SAFE in Pennsylvania.

[Thrill]

1. Obama has consistently held a 8-14 point lead in PA in multiple polls. They all aren't wrong. PERIOD

[democrattotheend]

2. You can't compare the performance of a black Republican...the dynamics are totally different

A black Republican might alienate some Republican voters but could potentially peel off a portion of the black vote from a white Democrat. Niether of those things matter for Obama. Republicans who stayed home or voted for Rendell because Swann was black wouldn't vote for Obama or any white Democrat anyway. African Americans who may have crossed party lines to vote for Swann are probably behind Obama. The groups most susceptible to any Bradley effect are soft white Democrats, and you can't look at a race featuring a black Republican and a white Democrat to tell anything about that.

I looked at the 2 2006 races with black Democrats, the Tennessee Senate race and the Massachusetts governor race. In Tennessee, despite the nasty advertising at the end, there did not seem to be a Bradley Effect. The polls were pretty accurate. In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick did get a slightly smaller margin than the polls predicted, but it wasn't huge...he still won handily.