I think Intrade traders are all freepers

[Hokie]

I have been watching Intrade today and I noticed when the Gallup poll came out there was almost no change in Obama and McCain futures. However, when the Drudge crap hit tonight Obama contracts immediately dropped 3 points from 85 to 82. That tells me that the folks trading there are mostly knuckle draggers who follow Drudge and discredited pollsters like Zogby.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Obama over 70 is all that is needed.

[John Q. Citizen]

2. Fuck the futures markets. Vote! Drag your ex-girlfriend, your idiot parent or kid,

your old next door neighbor, your mailman carrier, your friends room-mate down to the polls and lets get our people voted!
Only voting matters now. GE, ABC, and tea in china are tiny compared to getting our people voted.
We have to have them vote before we can protect their vote.

I would guess that some portion of Intrade voters ARE freepers. But all of them? That's hard to believe. In my experience, true freepers are pretty rare.

Ever been to a freeper rally? If they get the hottest ticket alive they can draw like 10,000.

We draw 10 times that many.

[Hokie]

6. I am using freeper in the lower case generic sense

I think they are right wingers. I have read the forums and 90% of the posters there are right wing nuts. It is just funny to watch how they react with real money when Drudge coughs and completely ignore 8 or 10 other polls.

[Zynx]

3. Ever read the articles on Intrade? Those are all right-wing as all hell.

On right-wingers would bet on an election. They are cynical enough to do it.

[dbmk]

7. Count me cynical, but I can live with that while I count the 200 bucks Obama has made me.

I don't really see the connection. Most small amount bettors bet on their favourites, which was pretty clear during the primaries.

Not saying that some are not cynical opportunists. But there is little basis for the generalisation.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Gamblers like high odds

That's all it is. Professional speculators train themselves to look for underdogs, in sports or politics or whatever. You don't have to hit a high percentage with that strategy. In this case it's basically wagering 15 to win 85. With 4 days still to go they can hope for an unlikely change of course, and if they lose they'll move on to the next variable.

Too many people look at the presidential race like it's a one and only. That is not true for gamblers. There's always something the next day. It's like over reacting to a line move or money line move in the Super Bowl. Speculators use the same strategy as all year; there's merely more focus from novices on a high profile event.

[dbmk]

8. Precisely.

Personally I think trading at 6,5 to 1 atm is a bad decision, though. :)

[dbmk]

5. Right now there is little return on an Obama win.

A McCain win has a bit longer odds though, so its more tempting to trade them if there is a shift.

And given that its an international market(afaik you can't get your money back in the US), its not even certain that its US citizens trading.

And your logic does not quite support the current situation.

[dbmk]

9. Another note

It is also very possible that people are cashing in their presidential election race bets to put the money into state bets that have a better return.