Zogby's 3-day rolling average is going to be about 49-45 after the one bad day

[scheming daemons]

He doesn't show McCain ahead in his tracker..... just that the lead will be down to about 4 instead of 7.... due to a good McCain day.


Any one single day is part of a 3-day total.


Relax. Obama's lead in Zogby's tracker will be about the same as Rasmussen's.

[anonymous171]

1. Close polls are good. Helps GOTV.

[AlCzervik]

2. how was this a good day for McCain, did i miss something big?

[FrenchieCat]

5. All of the normal people were out at their children's Holloween parades,

or out walking with the children.

Only folks home were the old folks who listen to Rush.

[scheming daemons]

6. Any single day has a whopping 6-point MOE.... That's why they average 3 days in the first place

[pnwmom]

12. The voice of reason. Thank you. All these small swings mean NOTHING. n/t

[Sidney J Mussburger]

7. He didn't keel over and die

That's a win for the McCain camp

[AlCzervik]

9. oh that's bad.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :spank: :spank:

[Sidney J Mussburger]

11. Well the truth is sometimes old, I mean very very sickly, no wait, I mean the truth is sometimes bad

my verbiage is off tonight. :evilgrin:

[Seen the light]

3. RELAX??????? HOLY FUCKING SHITTING SHIT WE'RE DOOMED!

I wish there could be some filter on this site that bans anyone that posts Drudge headlines and treats them seriously. However, you can't spell "Drudge" without DU.

[lonestarnot]

4. What's that you say? McSame's ahead in his tractor?

egh?

[Cali_Democrat]

8. There's a reason why most tracking polls use a 3-day rolling average

Because a single day of polling can be extremely inaccurate, especially if it's Friday and Halloween ;-)

[TheZug]

10. Plus, it's too abrupt a jump after at least two basically static days.

You'd have to believe that something like 10% of voters suddenly flipped in one day. Odds are very high it flips back in another day. There's no similar indication in any of the other polls.

[Democat]

13. However, with a rolling average, at some point the last day is all that matters

On election day, the results from three days ago are pretty useless. It is not voting day yet, but let's hope this is an anomaly, not a trend.

I am not saying there is anything to panic about here, but the truth is that a rolling average poll should probably be weighted toward the last day of polling once you get to the actual day of the election.

[FVZA_Colonel]

14. Wasn't yesterday the last day in a three-day poll?

There's no way the numbers will stay like this on Saturday and Sunday.

[Democat]

17. Hopefully, the real last day (election day) will have Obama way up!

As I said, this one day probably doesn't matter because it isn't the real last day. I was just making a point about a tracking poll and the end of the race.

[FVZA_Colonel]

18. Oh, I understand.

I think may have misread you a little bit, but I agree, there's no way it'll be like this tomorrow.

[blitzen]

16. Zogby's "day" is not really a day...

As Nate Silver points out on 538.com. The results for "today" are actually mostly from Thurs., with some from Fri. Drudge is cherry-picking a very small sample, less than a "half-day"--with a very large margin of error.

[blitzen]

15. Drudge clearly says "the three-day average holds steady"...i.e, Obama +7

[CreekDog]

19. Zogby's still insisting on his 50/50 men-women turnout model

when it should be at least 54/46 to be reliable.