I'm a pessimist. I like to expect the worst case scenario. If Obama does not carry OH, IN, FL or MO:

[Richardo]

He STILL wins dammit!!

All he needs - ALL he needs - are the Kerry states from 2004 + IA + VA.

That's 272 baby... :bounce: They can steal FL and OH, the south can stay red, IN and MO may stay GOP. I hope they don't, but it's not Armageddon if they do.


That said, GET OUT THE VOTE!

[Tiggeroshii]

1. or kerry states +ia+nm+co

[Richardo]

3. Right! that's my second scenario, in case VA somehow stays GOP

:thumbsup:

[Tiggeroshii]

yeah

it's not too likely mccain will win. But we still need to work! Cause if we don't and something happens all we'll have is ourselves to blame...

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please!

[lonestarnot]

4. You mean I won't have to camp on 1600 Penn. Ave.?

:bounce: :party: :applause: :bounce: :woohoo:

[WCGreen]

5. They aren't gonna steal Ohio....

There is great leadership here now in key place. Franklin County Board of Elections, Cuyahoga County Board of Elections and SOS Jennifer Brunner...

[Richardo]

7. That's great.

I'm glad to hear that.


There are a lot of 'cushion' states that will probably go his way at the end of the day: OH, VA, CO, NM, NV, possibly FL and NC although I'm not holding my breath on those two. Sure would be nice, though!

[Kukesa]

11. And Montgomery County BOE is doing a great job, also. n/t

[kanrok]

6. Watch the east coast returns

If NH and VA go blue, it OVAH!!!!

[AlCzervik]

8. Florida would be sweet though, that would go a long way and i could retire My

Florida! tag i stole from Fark. And as a bonus my rw nut bil "The Colonel" that lives in Florida would be super fun to call on the 5th.

[Richardo]

9. Run some simulations on 270towin.com - they're FUN!

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

If you look at the stats McCain NEVER gets 270, in 1,000 simulations :evilgrin:


Stat Table:

Election Winner
Obama 100.0%
McCain 0.0%
Ties 0.0%


Median Electoral Votes1
Obama 347
McCain 191


Average Electoral Votes2
Obama 347
McCain 191


Most Common Electoral Votes3
Obama 367
McCain 171


Range of Electoral Votes4
Obama 273-396
McCain 142-265 :bounce:

[smkyle1]

10. I think they offer something similar at fivethirtyeight.com

[Richardo]

12. Yes, but it doesn't fill in the states as you watch - I love that site, it's a data geek's nirvana

:thumbsup:

[struggle4progress]

13. OK -- but let's try for a sweep anyway.

[Richardo]

15. I approve this message

:patriot:

[4_Legs_Good]

14. There are so many paths we have available to 270

nailing down VA, as you say, though, is option #1, and it gives us a very early win. If we hit NC too, we can all go to bed early.

David

[WallStreetNobody]

16. This is why McCain is trying hard to get PA

[Strelnikov_]

23. Then we need VA+NM+NV+IA+CO

And, of course, the above assumes that one of FL or MO or NC does not break for OBiden.

[Pushed To The Left]

17. I plan on doing over 10 hours of phone banking over the weekend!

I'm cautiously optimistic. An Obama victory on Tuesday would be absolutely HUGE!

[Zomby Woof]

18. Playing with an electoral map the other day

I found that Obama's "worst case" win was 270-268.

Obama would carry where he is reliably blue in the northeast and upper midwest, plus Hawaii and the 3 Pacific Coast states.

He would also carry VA, NV, NM, and CO.

And through all that, he would *not* carry PA, OH, and FL.

Which means he can lose those last big 3 crucial states, but as long as he carries NV, CO, and NM out west, CA, OR, WA, and HI for the Pacific, and the solid upper midwest (MN, IA, MI, IL, WI), New England, MD, NJ, NY, and DE - and most importantly, VA - he can WIN. This means 22 states and DC to win 270, and as of now, is ahead in all of them, most of them solidly.

So without PA, OH, or FL, that makes VA a MUST win for Obama.

And since he is doing well in PA... and VA...

*holds breath for 3 more days*

[NotThisTime]

19. I just wish for it to be over and for him to win!!! Whichever way he can with whatever states!

[tkayj]

20. Ohio Republicans say on Nov. 2nd: "Democrats' GOTV is over!"

Prove them wrong! One of the Ohio Republican Campaign Chairmen said on CSPAN this morning that Democrats are only getting out the EARLY vote, and now the Republicans are going to pass them in the polls. I know every Democrat in Ohio has not already voted, and they can't stop voting now.

Democrats must continue to dominate the voting! It's not over 'til it's over!
GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

[complain jane]

21. thank you for posting this

[Strelnikov_]

22. The Reich Gauleiter on CSPIN was stating that most likely cannot win w/o OH

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

IA+VA, IA+NM+CO, etc. etc.