Zomby troll poll: Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%

[HughMoran]

Not sure why I felt obligated to post this.

http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm

Ignore the text from the attention whore.

[gabeana]

1. so this is it

he lost one point in the tracking and mcCain gained one

[Zomby Woof]

2. Hey now!

I am no troll and I have conducted no poll. :D

[HughMoran]

4. Yes, but you are the living dead

Zogby is neither living nor dead :P

[Zomby Woof]

7. I have the *urrp* brains to prove it!

Ahhhh, nothing like a fine Halloween meal... :9

[HughMoran]

14. Mmmmm, brains!

:D

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. How the hell can he say the infomercial didn't help?

ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE has shown at least slight gains since Wednesday.

[aaaaaa5a]

5. All of this fuss from an erratic pollster where we lead by 5 anyway??? nt

[HughMoran]

8. Partly why I even bothered to post it

:shrug:

[GrizzlyMan]

6. You can tell in his commentary how bad he wants it to tighten.

It literally drips from the page.

[blitzen]

10. He sounds like a CNBC stock market analyst...

who makes shit up to explain every little up and down movement.

[Florida33156]

9. So, the panic is over Obama being in the exact same place he was...

...4 days ago? Okay.

[regnaD kciN]

22. No, the panic is over...

...him suddenly dropping into a losing position behind McCain, four days from the election.

Now, it's probably all nonsense, as we're talking about one day in a small-sample poll with highly pro-Republican weightings. But, let's face it, what lots of Democrats fear, at a pre-rational level, is a renewed "Bradley effect" of indeterminate size. Think about those last two words for a minute: what Democrats subconsciously fear is that, at the last moment, lots of erstwhile "pro-Obama" voters will decide they can't vote for an African-American as President after all, and go with McCain instead. And the thing about such a pre-rational fear is that there's no way to overcome it, because the "indeterminate size" will always be, in their minds, slightly more than Obama's current lead. If he's up by 5%, the fear will be that there will be a 6% Bradley effect. If up by 10%, an 11% Bradley effect. If Obama had a 25% lead, there would still be the worry that, yes, there was going to be a Bradley effect, and it would amount to at least a 26% shift.

So, what you've got is belief in some mysterious "X Factor" that will turn a lead of any size into a loss. When we're given any indication that this might be actually happening (for example, a single poll showing Obama losing his entire lead over the course of a day), the subconscious reaction is that this is "proof" of what they feared, thus validating it beyond its own innate reliability or utter lack thereof.

[Sodan]

23. A self-defeating prophecy /nt

[mzmolly]

11. Nevermind..

Apparently Zogby did hip Drudge to the results of his outlier...

[Sodan]

16. He's playing with their minds - I have 20 other polls to look at..

All the wingnuts have: a pollster who's all over the map - down 12, close 3.. down 7... "close" 5 ..etc..

[mzmolly]

20. Seems more likely

than McCain being ahead of Obama for no apparent reason. ;)

[chollybocker]

12. WOW! This is BIG NEWS!

Trick or treat.;

[Sodan]

13. Noise...

[high density]

15. OMG--- We're losing NASCAR VOTERS!!

Nascar voters?! Zogby still seems to be stuck in 2004.

[Sodan]

17. What about Junior Johnson ;)

[MadBadger]

18. Who would recommend this?

[HughMoran]

19. There is someone recommending all marginal/negative news threads

I bet if a mod did some investigating, they'd have them some troll stew!

[FVZA_Colonel]

21. How was a "48 to 47 race" taken from those numbers?

[PBS Poll-435]

24. One day polling

In Utah.

[DCBob]

25. Halloween + Friday + Zogby bias effect

Tommorrow's numbers should be better. If they aren't, ignore Zogby. National polls are essentially meaningless anyway. Obama has this thing. Cheers!

[dennis4868]

26. WHERE CAN YOU FIND...

the internal for this poll?

We should not brush it aside until there is evidence to do so, right? If his one day poll that had McFart up by one polled more repubs or more men or both than we know it was a bullshit poll but until then we should take it seriously...this is what happened to many of us in 2004...we simply said a poll was bullshit because it was not god for Kerry.

[DCBob]

27. We should "brush it aside" until we see tommorrow's numbers.

Zogby is a questionable pollster. Don't worry about it. Focus on the state polls -- they will determine the winner.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

28. Does Zogby do STATE polling?

I know that we all still pay attention to the national numbers but, as has been mentioned repeatedly in I don't know how many posts since the GE began, it's the STATE polls that matter and where exactly is the "bad news" for Obama in terms of state-by-state polling? The only "bad news" that I've heard regarding the states (not to mention the state of the internal workings of the campaign) has been for McCain/Palin. Obama has performed the almost impossible (and seemingly improbable) task of taking numerous Bush 2004 states that should've been reliably "red" and either flipping them to the Democratic column or sending them into the "toss up" column. He's even forcing McCain to play "defense" in his HOME STATE of Arizona for crissakes, something that not even I anticipated even a month ago so I'm not exactly clear why some people are freaking out over a supposedly tightening Zog(m)by national poll especially since it doesn't even show McCain winning (or without much prospect thereof). Does anybody truly believe that Obama is at ANY risk of McCain magically outperforming Obama at the end even just in terms of the popular vote? McCain/Palin do NOT appear to be popular with the vast majority of the American people and no reliable poll has even showed them close to leading in terms of the popular vote since the period of time shortly following the RNC. However, I digress.

In order to win (as far as my non-professional intellect can reason), McCain needs to "RUN THE TABLES" on nearly every "battleground" state and while it's pretty certain to me that McCain will hold on to a few of them, it seems equally likely that Obama will manage to flip a few of them since there are now too many "battleground states" for McCain to have to defend and the one state that Obama has to "defend" from 2004 (Pennsylvania) appears to be safe and secure so, at the risk of sounding overconfident, without some kind of a major scandal or a historic implosion of the Obama campaign during the last 2-3 days, I believe that Obama will (comfortably- at least 300 electoral votes) prevail and if anybody truly believes that McCain/Palin will suddenly "turn it around" without some kind of damn good AMAZING reason during the last 3 days (maybe more like the next 2), then I have the ULTIMATE "bridge to nowhere" to sell you.

I'm cognizant, of course, of the pernicious effect that the corporate media appears to have had on this race and their hyping and promoting of every single solitary shred of "promise" and "hope" for McCain/Palin has become embarrassingly obvious despite amazing protestations to the contrary (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7690943). However, even with the corporate media seemingly shilling for McCain/Palin during nearly the entire campaign, Obama STILL has commanded the lead in this race and continued to gain public support. If anybody should be pissing in their Depends right now it should be McCain. Contrary to what the corporate media seems to believe, it's the people who ultimately decide what to believe NOT what they're TOLD to believe by the corporate media.

Now, I'm as nervous as hell like everybody else here about the outcome of this race and I am anything but naive about the dangers of underestimating right-wingers but, being as critical and open-minded as I can be, there simply does not appear to be any significant let alone overwhelming evidence that Obama is in any danger of losing this race.

Just remember to keep the faith, GOTV, and remember to chill the f*** out!!! Obama's got this!!!!

GOBAMA/Biden!!!!!!!

[book_worm]

29. Zogby does the traditional model polling, I believe, not taking into account changes in registration

etc. Heck, Obama and McCain could be even by election day, and early voting would probably be enough to put Obama over the top.

[M_Demo_M]

30. McCain is going to campaign in Arizona on Monday.

That says a lot more about the state of this race then this poll.