A good reference chart from Gallup on where this race stands. Plus Reagan/Carter 1980.

[aaaaaa5a]

Today 10/31/08 Obama leads among traditional likely voters (traditional model) 51% to 43%. His lead among registered voters is 52% to 41%.



There has been a lot of talk here about the Ronald Reagan 10 point victory in 1980. However that year the first and only Presidential debate was on October 28th. Two days after the gallup tracking poll with Carter's reasonable lead was completed.

Gallup explains this here with this snip.

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The 1980 Carter-Reagan Debate

In 1980, Carter consented to only one debate with Reagan, held on Oct. 29, less than a week before Election Day. In an Oct. 24-26 Gallup Poll, Carter led Reagan by 3 percentage points, 45% to 42%, among national registered voters. A post-debate registered voter trial-heat figure is not available in Gallup's published records, but in Gallup's final pre-election poll of "likely voters," conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, Reagan led Carter by 3 points, 46% to 43%. Without comparable pre- and post-debate registered voter figures on presidential preferences, it is unclear what impact the 1980 debate may have had on the election. However, given that Reagan won the election by nearly 10 percentage points, it is not likely to have been a determining factor.
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So basically on October 24 to 26, Carter led Reagan by 3% points (LV). After the debate on Nov 2nd, Reagan led by 3% points (LV)
He won by 10.

It is clearly an impressive comeback by Reagan, but he benefited from a late game changer (the first and only Presidential debate) and that is not available to John McCain today.



Here are the Presidential Gallup tracking polls from late October compared to the final election day results of each race.



Obama's standing from a historical perspective is excellent.


Obama +8 (LV)
Obama +11 (RV)

[NotThisTime]

1. Well, extrapolated from just these raw numbers, this is anything but locked up....