It would be sweet to see Obama take 2 or 3 states in the South.

[kentuck]

The conservative stranglehold would finally be over. If the Republicans cannot guarantee the South in their numbers, they are up shit creek. If Obama wins Virginia, NC, and Florida...and perhaps Georgia, then the entire chart has been re-drawn. Where would the Republicans go to pick up those votes?? New England? Doubtful. The West? The West has been turning blue for the last several elections. There is really no ground for them to gain if they lose 2 or 3 states in the South. C'mon NC and VA!!!

[mihalevich]

1. maybe LA and Mississippi as well

[NotThisTime]

2. I think we can only dream about those two at the moment....

[iiibbb]

4. There will be several southern states

MD, VA for sure.

NC probably

Fl... hard to say, but probably.

GA maybe.

[babylonsister]

3. Bravo, kentuck.

I'm happy, more and more are.

[jobycom]

5. Trivia (hopefully) time: Name the last winning Democratic ticket without a southerner.

[jobycom]

For that matter, name the last winning Republican ticket without a southerner.

[4lbs]

7. FDR-Truman?

FDR was from New York and Truman was from Missouri.

[jobycom]

8. That's about right. Depends on whether one considers Missouri and Kentucky southern.

Missouri used to be more "southern" than it is now. Think Mark Twain. It was a slave state, and during the Civil War was split over secession. Kentucky is usually considered southern.

If you go with deep South, then Truman/Barkley in 48 was the last time. If you go with nominally south, Barkley was from Kentucky so you'd have to go back to FDR/Truman in 44. But even then, Missouri voted with the southern block.

So the last unambiguously non-southern Democratic ticket was 1940--FDR/Wallace (Iowa).

But it gets more interesting. Wallace's predecessor was John Nance Garner, a Texan, who served with FDR his first two terms. So even back then, a southerner on the Democratic ticket was the norm, and Wallace was an exception. Remember, FDR was God by his third term and could have chosen anyone.

So the last Democratic president to win a first term without a southerner was Wilson in 1912.

Kentuck is right on this. This could be a sea change in American politics. Most elections in the last century have been based on the South. The Republicans have won some without Southerners, but often they've won by appealing to the South to do it. Eisenhower even suppressed Civil Rights activities and court-ordered desegregation in Texas so he could carry the South.

An Obama/Biden win rewrites the whole story of American politics, and it leaves the Republicans without a chapter.

[Bryn]

10. I believe that "Southerner" stuff is a

disappearing culture. It almost doesn't exist anymore. You can now find red states way up north, even Alaska and you probably will find some southern states turn blue. Time is changing.

[kentuck]

11. And every second the clock says "tick"... ... ...

Well said.

[jobycom]

13. Very true. There is still a character to the South that makes it distinct, but

the old lines of north versus south aren't the same anymore. Now you can draw urban versus rural just as effectively, or agricultural versus industrial, and with the growth of southern cities and southern industry over the last couple of decades, some regions of the south have more in common politically with similar regions in the north or west than with their own neighbors. Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, and the smaller cities like New Orleans, Austin, Charlotte, Jacksonville, all seem southern mostly in terms of cuisine. Other than that, they are more likely to share common interests with cities in the rest of the country, than with the rural areas just outside their suburbs.

And of course Civil Rights and the voting acts opened new influences, too. Even in rural areas the old southern vote isn't as homogenous. And that's not even touching on the growing Hispanic populations.

That's what I was getting at. Democrats used to win by carrying the South. Reagan used anger over Civil Rights to steal the South from the Democrats. Even as late as 92 and 96 Clinton won by carrying a couple of southern states and ruining the hold the Republicans had on the south. There was still a close balance, and candidates won by upsetting that balance.

But the unity has been a fiction for a decade or more, and Bush's failures have shaken feelings of party loyalty everywhere. From recessions to the war to failures of FEMA, the South has been hit as hard as or harder than other regions. Anger at Bush has allowed many southerners to reexamine their assumptions.

If Obama wins (and it's not in the bag yet, though it looks good), he changes everything. If the conservative, religious, rural South no longer is the deciding factor in elections, what is? What is possible? As Kentuck said, this could be the death of the current Republican Party. There will be far fewer safe districts, and to survive, the Republicans will have to seek a new message, and move more to the center. Democrats, too, may have to change. This could be the start of a major realignment.

I'm tired and rambling, but my point is in there somewhere. :)

[Lithos]

17. Not to rain on anyone's parade

But Delaware is south of the Mason-Dixon line and considered part of the South by the Census. It's considered one of the South Atlantic States (Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, N Carolina, S. Carolina, and Georgia.)

[jobycom]

18. I don't think people in the deep south would call Biden a southerner, and I doubt

people in Deleware ally politically with Georgia and Mississippi very often. It was nominally a slave state, but never joined or seriously considered joining the Confederacy. So it may be southern is some ways, but it was not part of what politically was known as "The Solid South."

Does Biden claim to be a southerner? I'm asking, I don't know. Do people in Deleware identify with southern tradition? I know very little about the state, except that it looks like an earlobe. :)

[Lithos]

19. Question, what is the standard in play here?

You mention "South", then "Deep South", then the candidate's own orientation. These are all different standards.

Biden probably does view himself more affiliated with the Mid-Atlantic area (PA/NJ) because of his ties in Scranton. However, Truman never to my knowledge ever considered himself anything but a Midwesterner, not a Southerner.

Also, the Deep South is really only a small portion of the South and consists of the "cotton" states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and S. Carolina and parts of Arkansas (Mississippi), Tennessee (Western Half), Florida (North) and Carolina (non-Appalachia). The political history and culture in those states is extremely different than other states as a result. The culture in Appalachia that is now considered "Southern" is distinctly different and not as historically aligned towards the Deep South.

There is another South, sometimes called the "Old South" which does include Delaware, (Old) Virginia and Maryland and represent the South as it stood at the time of the Revolutionary War.

Texas, well you live here just as I do and what you see is different from region to region, but is it's own animal.

[jobycom]

20. Voting identity

The states that in the past have voted as a solid political block. They did vote for Truman, and many historians consider that identity as a big part of Truman's upset. I've never heard of Deleware being a part of that block.

[HowHasItComeToThis]

6. OH YES, OH YES

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[damonm]

9. BTW, a little late news -

I just saw AZ going to "tossup" on RCP's electoral map...
So now McSame's HOME STATE is in play - wouldn't THAT be sweet?
NC's tilting our way; the trend's been toward Obama for the past 2 weeks.

[smalll]

12. He'll take Virginia - yes, there is a Santa Claus!

He'll take Virginia. He could take N.Carolina and Florida too, but those are less sure things.

He'll take Virginia though. And this whole "Real Virginians" thing - Ha! It Is To Laugh!

It was not that long ago they said the same kind of things about Democrats in Vermont, or Oregon. And they had a point then (as they have a point (a weak point) now -- )

but today, it is not the old Yankees who are the "Real Vermont" -- it's not the old pioneers who are the "Real Oregon" --

Latte Lliberals ARE the realness in those states!

It's only a matter of time before they're the realness in states like Viriginia too.

Time and progress; time and progress.

[icetea]

14. I like are chance in georgia right now

[mrih]

15. I made another post about this... but

Louisiana, could be possible?

[JCMach1]

16. VA,LA,NC,GA,FL,MO

Even outside chances inf AL,SC,MS

Who is saying 2 or 3?


I stand by my prediction that Obama does much better in the polls in the South and a bit worse in the north (slight bite of Bradley effect).

[morillon]

21. I am very optimistic about Georgia.

Republican support for McCain here is tepid, at best. Obama supporters are incredibly fired up, and there are a lot of us. :-)

[0955Forrest]

22. I spent a week

in the ATL suburbs last month and I can't see GA goin' blue.