North Carolina's Halloween Dagger into the heart of McCain/Palin's campaign

[grantcart]

477,952 more Democrats have voted early in North Carolina than Republicans

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

In 2004 1,094,154 North Carolinians voted in early voting.

So far, with two Friday and Saturday's numbers not yet added an almost equal amount of Democrats have voted(1,092,054)

So far in early voting Democrats have reached 71% of their 2004 total while the Republicans have only reached 31% of their 2004 total.

In 2004 Democrats out voted Republicans by 11 points in early voting (48 to 37). This year with twice as many people early voting Democrats out voted Republicans by 23 points (52-29).

In other words in 2004 Democrats started election day with an advantage of 122,545 voters while so far Democrats lead Republicans by 477,952 votes.

In 2004 Republicans outpolled Democrats by 435,317 votes. Currently 477,952 more Democrats have voted than Republicans.

So far the total number of Republicans who have voted is 615,102 while the number of African Americans who have voted is 552,761.

If the hard working Obama volunteers can continue with the strong early voting on Saturday McCain will start Tuesday with a huge deficit to overcome. Continued GOTV efforts on Election Day should make it impossible for McCain to catch up. He would have to maintain a 60% margin on election day to make up the difference and win. If he does not win North Carolina there is no credible path for him to reach 270 electoral votes



edited to add:

North Carolina Extends Early Voting

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/north-carolina-extends-early-voting/

The North Carolina Board of Elections today announced that it would extend early voting hours on Saturday, the last day people can cast ballots in the state before Nov. 4.

The emergency decision affects “one-stop” registration and voting sites in the state’s 100 counties, which have experienced long lines since opening on Oct. 16. The sites can now stay open four hours later, until 5 p.m., on Saturday.

According to The Associated Press, more than 1.7 million people, just under a third of the state’s registered voters, had cast ballots by Wednesday evening in the surprise swing state.

The North Carolina decision comes as states around the country have experienced heavy early turnout, with Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida extending early voting hours from eight hours a day to 12 on Tuesday.

[writes3000]

1. I love this post SO MUCH. Awesome, awesome, AWESOME!

This is where the real news is.

Thank you!

We made calls to NC from CA last week. I'm happy to have done a tiny bit to help.

[grantcart]

37. thank you

[NotThisTime]

2. I just know we can take, WILL take NC...

[scrappydo]

3. I do not post very often.....

....but I do browse a great deal. I always look forward to your postings - they are always on target and inspirational as well! Thank you for all your hard work and insight!!!!! :bounce:

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Ditto that. (Thanks, Grantcart!) I feel very good about NC. nt

[goclark]

35. GC is too much! He can calm our nerves

Grantcart, please make sure you are posting on Tuesday.

I hope that if Skinner has to limit the number of Posters that day that he will select only the CALM and SMART people like Grantcart.

Forget about posters like me that are crazy under stress. :bounce:

[abumbyanyothername]

4. Grant I don't know if edit is still available but

something is wrong with this assertion:

"Democrats out voted Republicans by 23 points (52-39)."

The sum doesn't match the data. Not sure which is wrong.

[writes3000]

6. It should be 29% to 30% Rep vs. 52% to 53% Dems. Just looked at the site.

[grantcart]

7. well the percents have been shortened but the number of voters uses the whole percent available.

[writes3000]

9. But should it be 52 to 39 or 52 to 29.? I think it's the latter, right?

[4lbs]

8. I think it should be 52-29. It's a typo.

1,092,054 Democrats have voted so far.

615,102 Republicans have voted so far.

370,894 Non-Dem/Rep have voted so far.

===========================================

2,078,050 total people have voted so far.


1,092,054 out of 2,078,050 is 52.55%

615,102 out of 2,078,050 is 29.60%

[grantcart]

12. correct didn't see the typo its late lol

[struggle4progress]

10. SOME (NOT ALL) NC counties are extending voting hours

See discussion here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3574263

North Carolinians should double-check whether voting their voting hours are being extended

[grantcart]

11. good advice - have any counties advised that they are not yet extending?

[struggle4progress]

15. Not all are extending. Read the discussion at the link in my prior post for some examples

The NC state board of elections website and the 100 county websites will provide more detail

[quiet.american]

13. Now, that's what I call a "talk me down." :) nt

[grantcart]

23. lol

[cliffordu]

14. K&R great report, GC!!

[dennis4868]

16. Unfortunately...

just because more dems are voting in NC does not mean a Dem win...in 2004, according to your post, 11% more dems voted and Kerry did not win the state....let's hope the dems in this state will see the light and vote for Obama...

[Florida33156]

18. That was in early votes, not in overall votes....

...and with the gross number of people voting being so much lower, the net pickup in early voting was nowhere near this level in 2004. Furthermore, the black vote is coming out big time.

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. That's our dennis...a real downer. I wonder if he knows Rachel? (nt)

[Laelth]

22. Welcome to DU!

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[DainBramaged]

24. Wrong, we got this

[musicblind]

17. Thank you so much for this GREAT post. I have a Question though.

How likely would it be for him to maintain a 60% margin on election day. Is that nearly impossible to do?

Either way. I am very sure that we will be winning my home state of North Carolina this go around :)

[grantcart]

31. I think it would be absolutely impossible for him to do so

I wonder if he will even break even. If there are long long lines a lot of soft Republicans and undecideds will just stay home.

[musicblind]

38. Thank you. I greatly respect your opinion on the matter

and it makes me even MORE sure that Obama will be winning the state of NC.


I belief I was insulted for believing way back when this thing started. One rouge DUer even sent me an unsolicited and unsavory private message on the matter. :)

[DCBob]

20. This is great news!! We are hearing similar stories from other early voting states.

Early voting is heavily leaning to Obama all over. Very good news indeed!

[Laelth]

21. Awesome news. I hope GA follows suit. n/t

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[nc4bo]

25. Everybody SMILE, it does the heart good - pick up the phone and start calling,

knock on some doors to keep momentum going forward.

GOTV has boots on the ground and starting at 10 a.m., my boots will be with the rest of them.

YES WE CAN DO THIS!!!

[grantcart]

36. exactly right

[mmonk]

26. That has been the battle plan here. You are watching it being executed

to precision.

[grantcart]

32. watching it with deep gratitude

[grantcart]

33. watching it with deep gratitude

[BleedingHeartRN]

27. Awesome!

I just read there are 6.2 million registered voters in NC, with significantly more registered Democrats than Rethugs. I'm cautiously optimistic that NC is going OBAMA.

My hubby and I are going to take advantage of early voting today. It's available 10am-5pm today in our county of residence.

[Rebellious Republican]

28. Me and my Evil DU'er Nephew (fnord) will out canvasing again today in Florida.

Got to make every second count.

[genna]

29. I thought Republicans have been telling us for years AAs don't MATTER in the South

"So far the total number of Republicans who have voted is 615,102 while the number of African Americans who have voted is 552,761."


How many more registered AAs are registered in NC who need to turn out?


Also what rationale is the McCain Campaign giving to explain why so few Republicans have turned out considering how wonderful Palin is?

[grantcart]

30. I would expect that the long lines for early voting has discouraged them

now if the lines are really long on Tuesday what are they going to do?

[DainBramaged]

34. We got this

true

[Dr. Death]

39. I just returned from canvassing in eastern NC

and saw this great post.

From the amount of enthusiasm I saw today, in this red part of NC, I think McCain is fucked in North Carolina.

Just to make sure, I'll be driving people to the polls on Tuesday.