Macdonald (Mason Early Voting Expert) "Obama has dug a really deep hole for John McCain to get out"

[grantcart]

This article discusses data from Dr. Michael McDonald of the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University that is being commonly linked to at DU. They also interview Dr. Donald for the article

Here is his site - http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Obama's early vote push

By Dan Balz
No matter the outcome on Tuesday, one of the great success stories of the 2008 campaign is the rise of early voting. Throughout the country, Americans appear to be casting early votes at a pace that far eclipses past performance.

In Colorado, the number of early votes already cast equals slightly more than half of the total number of votes cast -- early and on Election Day -- in 2004. In Florida, where Gov. Charlie Crist extended the hours for early voting, one-third of the 2004 total has already been cast.

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The best place for tracking these patterns is a Web site under the direction of Michael P. McDonald, an associate professor at George Mason University and non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. It is from that site that the figures cited are taken.

In Georgia, which Barack Obama's campaign has tried to put into play by registering and turning out new voters, more than 40 percent of the 2004 total is already in the bank. African Americans comprise about 35 percent of early voters -- a significantly higher percentage of the electorate than in 2004, when they accounted for 25 percent of the total vote.

Until all the votes are tallied next Tuesday, no one can say what the final percentage of black votes in Georgia will be. But at this point, the surge in black participation clearly threatens the reelection hopes of Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and has led both RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com to list Georgia as a toss up state in the presidential race.

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McDonald is a busy man these days. When I called his office Thursday morning, he was about to do a radio interview. When I called back half an hour later, there was a television crew in his office. Eventually he was able to talk for a few minutes about what he is seeing.

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One reason is that in some Western states, election officials are moving either at the state or county level toward all mail-in voting, which Oregon has had for some years. The other, bigger, shift is in the number of people who are voting early and in person at sites around the states.

Republicans are still winning the battle for absentee votes, but Democrats are winning among those voting in person. "We're seeing African Americans show up and Democrats show up by much larger margins than they have in the past," McDonald said.

Florida is a striking example of this. Republicans are voting at a heavier pace in the absentee ballots, but as early voting has gone along, the number of in-person votes cast is exceeding the number of absentees. As of Wednesday, 55 percent of early votes had been cast in person, 45 percent through absentee ballots.

McDonald said that Gov. Crist's decision to extend the hours for early voting could give Obama a real advantage in the battle for Florida's 27 electoral votes.

One question is whether these early voters are just people who ordinarily would have voted on election day. Republicans have suggested that's the case. But there are some pieces of evidence to the contrary. The high percentage of African Americans voting early in Georgia undercuts the GOP argument.

Because of its vast resources, the Obama campaign can afford to closely track early voting and carrying out a sizable get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation on election day. The Republicans will trigger their vaunted 72-hour GOTV operation this weekend. In 2004 it proved more effective than a massive Democratic effort. (Note the reporter may not be aware of the report that the McCain campaign is cutting back on its GOTV effort http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7677468)

Whether that's likely this year is in doubt, McDonald said, given what is happening with the early vote. "It just seems Obama has dug a really deep hole for John McCain to get out of," he said. "I don't know if the 72-hour-plan ladder's going to be long enough to let them climb out of it."

What you can do to help GOTV

1) Vote Early. The Obama campaign will be checking with every precinct it can on a regular basis to strike off those who have voted on their lists of sure Obama votes. If you vote early it means that they can take you off the list of known Obama supporters and not waste time trying to contact you. Also if you have family or friends get them to vote as early as possible.

2) Help on Tuesday - On Tuesday an army of volunteers is needed.

People are needed to:

--check in with precincts to find out who has voted and who is remaining.

--run that back to the office

--input data

--start calling known Obama supporters who have not yet voted

--offer assistance to any supporters who are having trouble getting to the poll -- help with transportation or help with kids etc.

--other errands that come up.

The cycle is continued over and over again until the poll doors are closed.

[icetea]

1. Years and decades from now

Politicians,pundits,and historians will be studying Obama's 2008 presidential campaign run.

[grantcart]

2. welcome to DU

[grantcart]

3. morning kick

[knowledgeispwr]

4. Good news.

I think McCain will fall short climbing up from a deficit in several states, including NC, and possibly GA.

[wildflower]

5. Awesome

I love early voting.