R2000/Daily Kos poll: Obama 51% McCain 44% (-1) Stick it Zogby

[Alhena]

http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

[dennis4868]

1. Obama...

was at 51 yesterday....hmmmmm

[WeDidIt]

4. McCain was at 45 yesterday n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Yeah - O Moved Up One-No Biggie

~

[cali]

2. And Marist, The AP, The NYT/CBS polls

all show Obama either gaining or maintaining a lead.

[dennis4868]

3. Daily Kos...

has not posted today's numbers yet....

[Alhena]

5. Yes he has- check the link in my post

[dennis4868]

6. they just posted the numbers....

it's 51-44

Obama (no change)

McCain (-1)

[BeyondGeography]

8. It was 51-45 yesterday and they have just posted 51-44 for 11/1

Good enough for you?

[dennis4868]

9. yep...

good enough :-)

[dennis4868]

7. I like this poll...

but I think if we were repub we would be saying that Research 2000 samples too many dems.....what do you think?

Dems 35%
Rep 26%

[4lbs]

11. Based on the early voting results favoring Dems, I'd say it was more accurate.

:D

[nickn777]

13. ABC showed their random sample breakdown and.....

it was 37%D, 28%R, when they asked people to identify themsleves by party...so the R2000 is not that far off. Maybe a point or so but nothing more....

[dennis4868]

14. do you know what the....

breakdown in 2004 was?

[nickn777]

15. I believe about even - 37R, 37D

[jefferson_dem]

16. Partisan breakdown in 2004 was roughly equal between Dems and Reps.

Some exit polls showed Dems +2 nationwide but nothing more.

[dennis4868]

17. then why is...

Research 2000 using a breakdown of 35-26....not a reliable poll....can't just assume it's going to be 35-26.....

[dennis4868]

18. anyone know...

how the other daily polls break it down?

[Schulzz]

21. Rasmussen uses 40% Dem 32.8% Rep. Not a big difference to R2000. nt

[jefferson_dem]

19. Based on surveys, we know there are currently more dems in the electorate than reps.

We also know dems are more motivated than reps this election cycle.

R2000 uses a weighting model that is slightly more favorable for Dems than the one Rasmussen uses. His dyamic party weighting model adjusts the numbers every week. Dems are +7 now. I don't think Gallup weights by party at all until their final projection poll.

You can find a good summary of the various methodologies here - http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

[dennis4868]

23. I think in the end...

it will be Dems +6 (certainly not +9).....I know many dems who do not take Research 2000 polls seriously bec of their part ID breakdown....

[MadBadger]

24. OK mister expert pollster man

[Danger Mouse]

25. He's just so CONCERNED he's got to let it OUT.

:cry:

[Zynx]

26. Because, just like in 2004, that's what large surveys of the U.S. population show.

Pew does this every year. They showed the spread in 2004 to only be Dems +2. In 2006, they showed it wider. This year, it is even bigger. These numbers do change from election to election. In 2004 the numbers were 39-35 Democrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. If We Were Repubs We Would Be Beating Our Kids, Wives, Or Dogs Now

My, I'm bad...

[nickn777]

10. Enough with Zogby....

His polls were being played up here when he showed a big Obama lead yesterday. Now, it's a dead heat he says. His polls are obviously junk. The race doesn't change like that on a daily basis. Using a 400 sample size plus the 2004 party split weightings can give you almost any result on a daily basis....that is why Zogby does it like this, so he can get atttention. He does this EVERY week-end.

[HughMoran]

22. Using his name in subject lines of OTHER polls only emphasizes his impact

I really think it's childish.