PA is always close. PAST results. calm down!!!

[sarahdemva]

here is 2004:

2,938,095 50.92% 21 kerry +2.5
2,793,847 48.42%

2000:
2,485,967 50.60% 23
2,281,127 46.43% gore +4.2

1996
2,215,819 49.17% 23 clinton +10
1,801,169 39.97%


i personally think 2000 is more likely to happen this year. however, if obamas margin is less than gore's, then he is in trouble nationally.

[nuncvendetta]

1. I don't agree that Obama is in trouble if the margin goes less than Gore

Remember, McCain/Palin have been giving extra-special KKK attention to PA. We could very well see PA go for Obama with a smaller margin than it did for Gore, but at the detriment to McCain of OH, FL, NC, VA, CO, NM...etc. PA can't be a "tea leaf" since McCain had to substitute resources away from other battleground states just to prop up PA.

[sarahdemva]

5. PA is very good national barometer

mccain can get out a national message from PA. there is no way we can win in ohio, va, or nc if obama wins PA by 4.2% or less. i think obama needs to go back to PA and campaign in se pa to get his votes out.

[Schulzz]

2. There are more battlegound states this year.

I think it is hard to compare this election to others. So many red states in play and McCain has focused a lot on PA. I think PA could end up closer than we thought, but it doesn't not mean that Obama has to be in trouble nationwide, he spent more time (than McCain) in many red states.

[cosmicone]

3. Obama can afford to lose PA easily

Even if Obama lost PA, McCain still has to win all of CO, IA, NM, OH, FL, NV, VA and NC. McCain cannot do it against an overwhelming money disadvantage and with the albatross Palin.

[Hokie]

4. He will beat Kerry and Gore's margins

I think it could be in the 10 point range.

[Jackinbox]

6. Polls from 2004

Pennsylvania Polls 2004

That should make everyone feel a little better.