WHy I dont Trust the Rasmussen PA Poll: Obama is only Gettting 75% of Democrats

[MadBadger]

This isnt June anymore. We dont have to worry about all those PUMAs. Obama has successfully brought this party together, and this poll would make one suspect that Obama is having trouble with the party. He actually gains with unaffiliated voters, but loses 11% of Democrats. Obama will get over 80% of Democrats when he wins PA, you can bet on it.

[SuperTrouper]

1. Rasmussen is trying very hard to come to an Obama 52-47 victory

He is not going to give it a 50-50 tie because his final results mean $$$ for him. So by Monday expect a 3-5 point victory for Obama in Rasmussen's poll.

[Zynx]

2. I admit to piggy-backing off of a friend's Rasmussen Premium account, and having looked

at their internals in the past they often make no more sense than some of the crazy SurveyUSA internals we see from time to time.

[MadBadger]

3. The ones with McCain getting 23% of the black vote?

[Zynx]

4. Not quite that crazy, but there is often some strange stuff.

[SuperTrouper]

5. What about TIPP's? Crazy too

[Schulzz]

6. He has Biden as running mate, both Clintons campaigned there.

I agree, it doesn't make sense.

[bigdarryl]

7. I believe the polls that are done in PA not these guys like Zogby

[liskddksil]

8. Always remember when analyzing polls

That there is a higher margin of error for subgroups, because the smaller the sub-sample size the higher the probablity of variation. While for this poll, the number in each party should still be fairly large, the margin of error is still higher than for the overall sample.