The Daily Widget, Sat 11/1 – O-365, M-173 – MO, ND to the Right; AZ, MT to the Left

[phrigndumass]

Latest Voter Registration Totals – Updated 11/1
Latest Swing State Graphs – Updated 11/1
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs – Updated 11/1
Latest Early Voting Results


1. ANALYSIS

Forty-one state polls were released yesterday: 28 for swing states, 5 for blue states and 8 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for this set of polls is 24-14-3. Although 5 states change columns today, two of them tipping from blue to red, the movement was very small for these states and Obama still holds a 9.8 million vote lead in the popular vote count over John McCain. McCain gained about 400,000 votes since yesterday, nowhere near the 2.5 million votes needed yesterday to be on course to catch up to Obama by November 4. So with only 3 days remaining, McCain now needs to find 3,266,426 new votes every day to even have a chance this year.





Moving to the right: Insider Advantage conducted a new Missouri poll showing McCain leading by 3 points, moving Missouri from the Lean Obama to the Lean McCain column today. Research 2000 released a new poll for North Dakota with McCain leading by 1 point, moving North Dakota from the Lean Obama to the Lean McCain column today. And Mississippi moves back into the Strong McCain column today after Research 2000 shows McCain leading by 13 points there.








Moving to the left: Arizona continues to tighten as Research 2000 shows McCain’s lead dropping to a single point today. Arizona moves into the margin of error (Lean McCain), making it a true swing state at the moment. And Montana moves back into the Lean McCain column as a new ARG poll shows McCain’s lead there diminishing to 3 points.








Still Coming Up This Weekend:
- THE MATH Weekly on Sunday morning (look in Editorials & Other Articles forum)
- The Daily Widget Projection for Tuesday!


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alaska Obama 39, McCain 58 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 46, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 47, McCain 48 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 54, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.2, 2023 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 47 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 2 (Downs Center/SUSA, 10/29, +/- 3.5, 900 LV)
Iowa Obama 53, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 42, McCain 51 (Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 3.5, 817 LV)
Louisiana Obama 40, McCain 43 (Loyola University, 10/25, +/- 4.8, 475 LV)
Michigan Obama 50, McCain 38 (EPIC-MRA, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 54, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Michigan Obama 55, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.5, 1532 LV)
Minnesota Obama 57, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 3.0, 1050 LV)
Mississippi Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 47, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 10/29, +/- 3.4, 814 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 48 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 44 (Research 2000, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 56, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 39 (University of NH, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 3.6, 682 LV)
New Jersey Obama 53, McCain 35 (Farleigh Dickinson U, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 852 LV)
New Jersey Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 632 LV)
New Mexico Obama 58, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.5, 1537 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/29, +/- 3.7, 641 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 45 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 38 (Elon University, 10/29, +/- 3.5, 797 LV)
North Dakota Obama 46, McCain 47 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 57, McCain 41 (Ohio University, 10/18, +/- 4.0, 611 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34, McCain 63 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 594 LV)
Oregon Obama 53, McCain 34 (Portland Tribune, 10/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.6, 1424 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 43 (Morning Call, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
West Virginia Obama 42, McCain 55 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.1, 2128 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 52, McCain 42 (Badger Poll, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 538 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Thanks phrigndumass!

:kick:

Bookmarked for reading! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Hope I didn't overload everyone this morning, lol :)

Four posts all at once :7

:donut: Good morning, jd! :hi:

[Demeter]

3. Good Morning, P-Man!

Did you get lots of goodies last night?

We did not have many trick-or-treaters here--more likely a gauge of how many young ones are in the neighborhood than anything else. Evidently, people weren't roaming the city with their hordes of kids in the minivans scarfing through multiple developments, as sometimes happens...wonder what THAT means for the economy! Staying close to home out of fear? After all, gas is down to $2.05

So I have leftovers....the Butterfingers are especially fresh, this year.

It's going to be 400 EV come Tuesday--you just know that. People are going to want bragging rights: they'll back the winner and boost the totals.

If you are running a pool, that's my bet.

[bigdarryl]

6. Those state polls are OLD as hell most of them were done on the 29th

poll numbers change like the wind 3 days is a long time without polling

[phrigndumass]

8. mmmm ... Butterfingers!

We live out in the country (only a mile from Springfield) so trick-or-treaters don't usually come out this far. But we had some goodies anyway :D

I hope you're right about 400 EV! :bounce:

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[Youphemism]

4. Thanks again, Phrig. I'll take "not bad" news. Still, it would be nice to see movement to Obama...

I'd like to see that landslide mandate thang.

Nice that he's hovering around and above 50 in Pennsylvania. That's a nice one to keep out of reach while McCain jumps for it like a cat for a laser beam on a wall.

[phrigndumass]

9. LOL ... "McCain jumps for it like a cat for a laser beam on a wall" :)

Just the mental picture of that is hilarious! :rofl:

Look for low and away, but watch out for landslide :D

:donut: Good morning, Youphemism! :hi:

[tekisui]

5. knr!

What a ride. Obama has held it. The 264 Strong Obama is his key to winning. I think it's going to be a big, happy night on Tuesday. But, I can comfort myself between now and then, knowing that Obama needs only one state from :
CO, OH, VA, FL, NC, GA, IN, or MO.

McPOW needs to take everything that isn't Strong Obama, and that is just for a tie. We are holding all the cards, and it feels damn good.:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:


Thanks, again, phrign! What are you going to do with yourself after Tuesday? What will be you math outlet?:) :hi: :kick:

[phrigndumass]

11. Very good analysis!

That's it exactly ... The national polls can get as close as they want, but McCain still has no chance in the state standings! And it does feel damn good :D

After Tuesday? Sleep Wednesday, post-election stats, and NFL Baby! I'm an NFL stats nerd, and it's been weird waiting until Week 8 or Week 9 to get into the NFL this year.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

14. I figured you had somewhere to go to crunch numbers.

:-)

[immoderate]

7. Greetings, Phrig!

Thanks again for posting all those pretty charts.

--IMM

[phrigndumass]

12. yw, IMM :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

10. There is more ! Thank you !!! Hold the pancakes for a moment !

So much candy this morning !!!! Thank you ! I just left you a message on your other post.

[phrigndumass]

13. Nice quiche yesterday :)

I'm a real man, and I enjoy quiche, lol!

:donut: Good morning, cad7! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

15. Real men eat quiche and pancakes and muffins and pies !!!!

I can not believe AZ ! OMG. Good morning ! I will be back to study this, time for breakfast. I am smiling, AZ...audacity !!! Glad you liked the quiche :)

[yellerpup]

16. I so look forward to these posts.

Donuts on me this morning. :donut:

[phrigndumass]

17. Wow, lots of goodies today :)

Thanks, yellerpup :D

Good morning! :hi:

[JBoy]

18. I love your stuff, Phrig.

Took me two glorious cups of coffee to get through this batch.

[phrigndumass]

21. Thanks, JBoy :)

I know how to fill a post, don't I? lol ... Thanks for reading! :hi:

[grantcart]

19. Look how expensive North Carolina is getting

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7691313&mesg_id=7691313

[phrigndumass]

23. Nice post! More early voting in NC than ever before :)

Wish I could have included more detail on NC and LA, but I was knee-deep in all the data last night, lol

:hi:

[mod mom]

20. Thanks PHrig. Another factor to add to our sides deals with the long lines....

I waited 3 hours 55 minutes to early vote yesterday in Ohio. An election observer just called and said lines are now over 4 hours here in Franklin Co OH. You have to be a very motivated voter to remain in these lines. I think that many unmotivated Republicans will simply say F-it and leave as opposed to remain in these lines (which at least in our county are expected to be worse on election day-ex in 2004 the avg time needed to vote in Franklin Co was between 4-5 minutes due to initiatives, this year the avg time jumped up between 8-9 minutes per voter. Couple this with a huge turnout and you can expect much longer lines than in 2004.)

[phrigndumass]

24. Ugh, even longer lines in Ohio than in 2004?!

There has to be an easier way to vote, don't you think? :crazy:

Maybe smaller precincts? I dunno ... I'm lucky since our precinct only has a few hundred voters. Couldn't imagine waiting in line that long, that takes so much commitment!

I still have faith in Ohio voters, though :D

:donut: Good morning, mod mom! :hi: And thanks for working so hard in Ohio!

[mod mom]

36. Ballot initiatives. This year w have early voting which they expect ~30% to

participate but they also expect a huge turnout, and we have the ability to request a paper ballot (recommended) at our precinct.

Thanks for your info

[Lochloosa]

22. Ohio looks really good today.

[phrigndumass]

25. Love the graphic, lol

Obama looks good in anything, lol

:hi:

[cliffordu]

26. Great work. K&R!!!

What the hell are you going to do after the election??

[phrigndumass]

28. Thanks cliffy :)

Answer: SLEEP :7

And pester you and grantcart, obviously

:hi:

[cliffordu]

29. I'm thinking we could both pester grantcart.....

Like that tagteam wrestling thingy they do

[phrigndumass]

30. That should be a fair fight ...

I hear he weighs 1,000 pounds, so it'll take at least two of us to bring down Grantcart the Sumo Wrestler. (I also hear he looks good in a Sumo posing strap, lol)

[cliffordu]

31. Well...Now I have to poke my eyes out. Thanks....

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

32. ...

:rofl:

[Demeter]

35. As Do Any Other Unfortunate Browsers

Ow!

[Smuckies]

27. Interesting

Thats pretty cool that Montana is in play. I definitely think we can grab it!!

[flygal]

33. thanks for this - really interesting stuff

I love the way you organize it :kick:

[RiverStone]

34. We are all so shell shocked from the last 2 elections, hard to celebrate until McBush concedes...

But I'd sure rather have our numbers than theirs! :hi:

Thanks for the good work P --- and the good news!

peace~:)

[fight4my3sons]

37. Good Afternoon!

:hi: :bounce: