San Diego Union Tribune: Obama is helping Leibham take out Bilbray

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Fighting to take one of the Reddest Districts Blue

No incumbent with a 9 point party advantage has been defeated in 40 years

With Barack Obama positioned to win California in a landslide on Tuesday, one Democratic congressional candidate in San Diego

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20081101-9999-1m1cong50.html

County – Nick Leibham – hopes he might be able to ride Obama's coattails into office.
Obama leads his Republican presidential rival, John McCain, 55 percent to 33 percent in California, according to a Field Poll released this week, a lead that may help some fellow Democrats.



A victory for Leibham, a Rancho Santa Fe lawyer who is trying to topple incumbent Brian Bilbray in the 50th Congressional District, would be a mammoth upset in a district that has maintained a wide, albeit shrinking, margin of Republicans over Democrats.
“Bilbray has every right to be worried,” said Sam Popkin, a University of California San Diego political science professor and past adviser to Democratic presidential campaigns. “It really depends on moderate independents and occasional voters turning out.”

Popkin said a large turnout could work against Bilbray, especially if Republicans unmotivated by McCain stay home.

50th Congressional District
Republican: 40.5 percent

Democrat: 31.4 percent

Undeclared: 23.9 percent

Libertarian: 0.6 percent

Other: 3.6 percent

Republicans in the district hold a 9 percentage-point edge over Democrats – 40.5 percent to 31.5 percent – which is down a point from three months ago.

In 2006, the gap was 14 points, indicating a district migration from red to blue, matching a countywide trend.

The district extends from La Jolla and Clairemont in San Diego to Escondido and Carlsbad in North County.

Popkin's UCSD colleague, professor Gary Jacobson, who tracks local races, said no Democrat has overcome a 10 percentage-point gap in voter registration in 40 years.

But, he said, “If it were ever to happen, this would be the year it could happen,” because Obama will mobilize Democratic voters.

That would aid Leibham, but Jacobson noted another force that would help Bilbray.

Leibham, 34, a political newcomer, said he will benefit from Obama's lead and his draw among independent voters.

The overriding national issue has been the nose-diving economy, which Leibham has latched onto.

An ABC/Washington Post poll released yesterday says voters are more likely to trust Obama with the economy and taxes.

In that vein, Leibham has run TV ads attacking Bilbray's negative vote on the $700 billion package passed by Congress to bail out failing financial firms, and linking Bilbray to contributions from Wall Street firms.

“There's not a lot of reasons for Republicans to come out to vote on Tuesday because their candidate (McCain) is going down in flames,” Leibham said. “That puts me in a position to win on Tuesday.”

Obama runs strong among independents, moderates, minorities and those ages 18 to 34, the Field Poll shows.

Nearly one-fourth of district's voters declare no party, and Leibham's campaign says he is running strong among that group.

However, the 50th Congressional District tilts neither young nor minority.

Seven of every 10 district residents are older than 35, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and minorities make up only 25 percent of the population, blunting the potential effect of those voters for Leibham.

If you can help this weekend, Monday or Tuesday call 760-697-1080 and help create history:

Popkin's UCSD colleague, professor Gary Jacobson, who tracks local races, said no Democrat has overcome a 10 percentage-point gap in voter registration in 40 years.



http://www.picknick08.com/

[ej510]

1. Bye Bye repuke.