My take on the evolution of Gallup likely voter models

[thesubstanceofdreams]

Initially Obama did much better in the "new" model (self-reported voters) than in the "traditional" model (people who voted in the past). But they now have both converged.
Why? Easy. 27% have already voted. So Gallup must be detecting that those who said they would vote are actually voting, even if they haven't voted in the past.

[knowledgeispwr]

1. I think you are on to something

I think that as more people early vote, the models are converging.

[pnwmom]

2. Yes, they acknowledge that in their analysis of results. Those voters,

they say, have "locked in" their choices.