Why the Gallup LV-traditional lead jumped today:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1) The tightest LV model (LV traditional) includes people who have already voted. With each passing day real votes for Obama that would not have been predictable from prior voting behavior are added to the LV1 group. That is, LV1 is starting to include large numbers of actual Obama voters who the LV1 model predicted, as of a week ago, would not vote. (This is in keeping with observations that Obama is capturing a number of 'sporadic' voters in early voting.)

Gallup's interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday shows that 27% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted. The trend in early voting has trended consistently upward on a day to day basis, moving from 7% of registered voters, who had already voted during the period of Oct. 17-19, to the current estimate of 27%. Another 8% of registered voters still indicate that they plan on voting before Election Day itself. The vote choices of these early voters -- all of whom are included in the likely voter pool since they are definite voters -- skew more toward Barack Obama than the sample average. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

2) Gallup increased the turnout prediction built into LV1 from 60% to 64%, thus moving it closer to the LV-Expanded model. (All indications I've heard suggest that 64% remains a conservative figure, though as Jefferson_Dem notes below, that conservative figure would still be a record. This is the Usain Bolt of elections, where a world record is a conservative prediction.)

[Quixote1818]

1. That was my guess even before I read the article. nt

[Warren Stupidity]

2. So - "less likely voters" voted and voted Obama.

And are now showing up as 'likely voters' in gallup as they actually went and voted.

I think I like this trend.

Fuck Zogby.

[jefferson_dem]

3. 64% would be a record.

Topping the 63% turnout in 1960. I think it's going to happen.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Good point! Thank you.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. ...

[DemzRock]

The race is getting tighter.... IN BIZARROWORLD!

[DemzRock]

4. The race is getting tighter.... IN BIZARROWORLD!

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

5. MSNBC reported that Obama now has a 200,000 early voting advantage in Florida

According to Nora O'Donnell, 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans have now voted in Florida.

[bigdarryl]

14. THATS IT!!!!!!

Not good enough it should be 500,000

[DCBob]

7. Which means their traditional model was flawed and their expanded model was right.

I suspect the other pollsters use a traditional model as well. Which means their numbers are skewed low as well.

[Kahuna]

8. Absolutely right. This is not a "traditional" election. So that "tradtional"

model is pretty useless.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. I respect them for publishing two models

Monster turnout was predicted, but it's valuable to have the apples-to-apples figure as well. LV1 is essentially, "If the voting patterns of 2004 were repeated the result would be this."

I wish all the pollsters did the same thing, of presenting their top-line numbers in the context of differing assumptions, rather than just tossing out one LV number based on God-knows-what.

[speedoo]

10. Excellent. Makes much sense. K&R.

Thanks for posting.

[grantcart]

11. Well that is

Rather Stunning

I love it when a modest thread title hides an earthquake level piece of news.

Personally I think that they are conservative and its going to be closer to 68%.

[goclark]

16. Happy Days Would Be Here Again

:bounce:

[tblue37]

19. Funny you should say that. Just last night I was thinking that

Obama's campaign should play "Happy Days Are Here Again" at his victory speech.

[tpi10d]

12. K&R

Very good news..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Nate Nailed It

He said that many first time voters who already voted could not pass the likely voter screen because it screened out first time voters...

[Jennicut]

17. 64%...wow. That would be huge. Looks like the traditonal model is not really holding up.

Amd Zomby can kiss Gallup's butt. Where the hell is he getting his #'s from? Eh, who cares. The man is an idiot.

[tblue37]

18. I had not planned to vote early, but when I read in this morning's paper that

our area was expected to have 80% of registered voters actually voting, I became a bit concerned about long lines and overwhelmed poll workers on Tuesday, so I headed on down to the courthouse to vote early.

Even at that I had about a 10- or 15-minute wait. The courthouse was doing quite a brisk business in early voters--on a Saturday, yet.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. Good you got it out of the way.

[Omnibus]

21. Good idea to go and vote early.

One more in the bank for the good guys!