By reasonably conservative estimate Obama STILL on Track for 291-247 EC Victory

[kennetha]

I've been approaching this election for the past couple of weeks in the most conservative, least favorable to Obama way I can imagine, in order to see if there is any plausible scenario in which McCain does mount a surprise comeback.

For the purposes of this exercise, I've been assuming that McCain wins every state in which Obama has not reached 50% in the RCP averages.

That's giving McCain the maximum benefit of the doubt that it seems plausible to give him. That approach basically assume that since the undecided are not likely to be core democrats or democratic leaning constituencies, McCain has a significant chance of winning the huge bulk of them.

But it's also assuming that Obama's vote is not wildly inflated or soft. That is, it assumes that persuadable voters are no more likely to move from Obama to McCain than they are to move from McCain to Obama. It's also assuming that Obama doesn't underperform because of the Bradley effect. These seem to me quite reasonable assumptions. If I'm wrong in these assumptions than maybe McCain has a slightly better chance. But I would call this the SUPER conservative scenario.

Operating on the conservative, but not super conservative set of assumptions, Obama has been and remains on track to win 291 EV to McCain's 247. This gives McCain all of the current toss-up states and flips one state that is currently leaning Obama --- Ohio -- to McCain. Among the leaners, Obama holds, PA, CO, NV, NM, and VA. In order to actually WIN the election, McCain would have to pull off a pretty neat hat trick. He'd have to take back PA and one other state or he'd have to take back VA + CO or VA + NM and NV.

I don't think has much chance at all of happening.

Again, I regard this as a conservative estimate that advantages McCain as much as one reasonably can. The super conservative estimate would involve seeing Obama's totals as inflated by both a significant number of persuadable voters and a measurable Bradley effect. Only if the super conservative assumptions were true would McCain have a serious chance of winning the election.

Bottom line. Obama will win with no fewer than 291 electoral votes. He may of course go significantly higher. But he won't go any lower than that.

[speedoo]

1. That's not reasonably conservative. It's extremely conservative. nt

[creeksneakers2]

2. I admire your objectivity

Open to lots of possibilities. I agree with your conclusions.

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. At this point I'd say he'd be more likely to take Florida than Ohio, given Obama's increasing

numbers there.

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Funny. I thought you were our resident PUMA!?!

[kennetha]

5. Some people never quit!

[kennetha]

6. ...