Why are voters in VT and NH so different?

[Quixote1818]

I was just looking at the 2004 vote totals. Kerry won VT by 20 points, yet barely squeaked by in NH. I suspect Obama will win both states easily this time around and while both are blue states, NH is like a pocket of more independent and conservative voters.

[BlooInBloo]

1. If gawd had intended for us all to be the same...

he woulda put steel braces on all of our legs.

:rofl:

[Frances]

2. Very good question

When I lived in the Boston area in the late sixties, the main New Hampshire newspaper, the Manchester Guardian I think it was, had a super right wing slant. But the owner died some time ago.

I will be interested to see what Vermonters and New Hampshire people have to say.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. I've lived in both - very, very different indeed. a good read below.

Here is what fivethirtyeight.com has to say about each -

New Hampshire

INDEPENDENT AND DARTMOUTHY, New Hampshire provided one of the most dramatic primary night results in recent memory, as it re-birthed John McCain's previously buried candidacy and re-steeled Barack Obama's campaign to fight all the way through the finish line. It also puts its state-controlled liquor stores on median islands right on the interstate. So, there's that. To paraphrase Daniel Webster, it is, sir, as I have said, a small state, but there are those who love its four electoral votes

What McCain Has Going For Him

New Hampshire is the state that has twice given John McCain's campaign for the presidency life, so he has every reason to believe he'd do as well as any Republican could in this increasingly blue New England state. A high number of military veterans and an antipathy for taxes (many among the Boston commuter population lives across the border in New Hampshire to take advantage of lower tax rates) aid McCain's popularity. So, too, a low percentage of voters under 30 (4th fewest) help McCain blunt Obama's demographic edge. McCain has relatively strong fundraising in the state, and the reality that only a quarter or so of voters identify as Democrats with a huge independent population gives him his best shot to pick off a Kerry state this year. Most importantly, voters in New Hampshire know McCain. He's spent so much time in the politically active retail politics state that voter familiarity will help him squeeze every last drop he can out of the Granite State.

What Obama Has Going For Him

Winning New Hampshire will be especially satisfying for Barack Obama, for it was here his campaign confronted a defining moment during the primary. Where some campaigns begin internal finger-pointing, the Obama campaign accepted the defeat and embraced the idea that it would fight tooth and nail in every corner of the nation, for every vote, until the race was finished. Just as the campaign steeled itself internally, Barack Obama gave a public speech for the ages in defeat. As for our demographic breakdowns, New Hampshire is more open to same-sex couples but Starbucks remain low because Dunkin Donuts dominates the state. Fewer than the median own guns, and the education rate is very high, placing the state 5th. The state went to George Bush by 1% in 2000 and John Kerry by 1% in 2004, so it has been very close in recent elections, but antiwar sentiment is high here. Just as John McCain played retail politics well in New Hampshire, so too did Barack Obama. Obama will almost certainly win the state's four electoral votes.

What To Watch For

New Hampshire features a lot of action this year, with Jeanne Shaheen trying to unseat John Sununu and leading in the polls. House Democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, in the first and second House districts respectively, pulled off two of the most stunning wins in 2006, and now face freshman defenses. Hodes has an easy race, but Shea-Porter finds herself in a tossup against Jeb Bradley. In the presidential race, Obama leads McCain comfortably and has been at or over the magic 50 number in every public poll in October, except... wait for it... Zogby Lite-Brite Zogby Interactive. The kiss of death for McCain, Zogby thinks it's close

Vermont

SYRUPY AND NEWHARTISH, Vermont has three electoral votes as safe as they come for Barack Obama. However, Vermont was long a Republican bastion -- from 1856 through 1988, it voted Republican in every single election except for LBJ's 1964 rout. Before 1856, it voted straight Whig. Woodrow Wilson only failed to carry Republicans won only two states in 1912 -- Vermont and Utah. FDR lost the state four times, including 1936 when only Vermont and Maine went Republican. But beginning in 1992, Vermont has gone Democratic by margins of 16, 22, 10 (Nader 2000) and 20. If Obama fails to carry the state by a floor of 20 points it would be a stunning upset

What McCain Has Going For Him

Vermonters own a decent number of guns. And the Starbucks:Walmart ratio is shockingly even for such a liberal haven: one-to-one, ranking it a mere 34th. Meanwhile, “American” ancestry is in the top third of states, and unemployment isn’t extraordinarily high. Vermont is also a very white state, with African-Americans and Hispanic voters each comprising less than one percent of the population. Vermont even replaced Howard Dean with a Republican Governor, Jim Douglas. While these small indicators come nowhere close to adding up to a McCain win, it isn't as clear-cut from the demographic data outside of the Likert scale and Bush margins. Vermont is surprising in that the percentage of self-identifying Democrats only barely edge self-identifying Republicans.

What Obama Has Going For Him

Highly liberal, highly educated, and very strong per capita Obama fundraising illustrate why Vermont and its three votes are safely in Barack Obama's column. Holding the highest concentration of rural voters and same-sex couples, Vermont was Kerry's 3d best state over Bush in 2004, and only one state ranks more liberal on the Likert scale. Popular Senator Bernie Sanders even identifies as a socialist. Vermont is often the state, along with Massachusetts, that shows up in a stream of liberal-bashing pejorative labels (Volvo-driving, latte-sipping, etc.).

What To Watch For

Vermont has no Senate seats up, Peter Welch's House seat is safe, and this year's gubernatorial election is safe for Jim Douglas' re-election because Anthony Pollina of the Independent-cum-Prograssive Party is splitting the liberal vote with Democrat Gaye Symington. Democrats hold large majorities in both the Vermont House and Senate. Thus, in terms of what to watch for, the best bet is to put on a Phish album and drive to Gutterson Field House to watch some UVM hockey. Then go hunt for Ben and Jerry's newest flavor, ChiveThirtyAte.

[NotThisTime]

4. I don't know I moved from Mass on the NH border to VT & honestly, some of those people in NH scare

me....

VT definitely has a better sense of community....

[Aloha Spirit]

5. Conservative Mass. residents who hate taxes move over the state line...

% population growth from 2000-2006 due to migration.
lots of miliary, national guard in NH communities.
New Hampshire is not as lush as Vermont.
Finally , you could argue that Vermont has more waterfront than NH and that that correlates with political leaning for whatever reason.

[Vinca]

6. A couple of years after I moved from Vermont to New Hampshire

I realized - politically - it was not such a great idea. Fortunately, since I really like the spot where we live, it's getting bluer and saner. New Hampshire has this whacky "live free or die" reputation that is all baloney. There might not be a sales tax, but it's going to cost you double or triple to register your car. They get the money one way or the other.