2004 polls this time four years ago.

[Drunken Irishman]

Just to give you an idea of how accurate the polls were.

ARG (RV): Kerry 49, Bush 48
ARG (LV): Kerry 49, Bush 48

CBS News: Bush 47, Kerry 46
CBS News/NY Times: Bush 50, Kerry 47

Gallup (RV): Kerry 48, Bush 46
Gallup (LV): Bush 49, Kerry 47

Fox News (RV): Kerry 47, Bush 45
Fox News LV): Kerry 48, Bush 46

Los Angeles Times (RV): 47-47
Los Angeles Times (LV): 48-48

Marist College (RV): 48-48
Marist College (LV): Kerry 49, Bush 48

NBC/Wall Street Journal: Bush 48, Kerry 47

Newsweek (RV): Bush 48, Kerry 44
Newsweek (LV): Bush 50, Kerry 44

Pew (RV): 45-45

Zogby/Reuters (LV): Bush 46, Kerry 45
Zogby/Time (RV): Bush 50, Kerry 43
Zogby/Time (LV): Bush 51, Kerry 46

Pollsters who had Kerry winning:

ARG
FOX News
Marist College

Pollsters who had Bush winning:

CBS
Gallup
NBC/Wall Street Journal
Newsweek
Zogby

Pollsters who had both Bush & Kerry tied:

Pew
Los Angeles Times

The Pew poll was of registered voters, not likely.

The closest? CBS News, New York Times poll, which had Bush winning by a 50-47 margin, he won by a margin of 51-48.

So what does this show? The race was extremely tight in 2004, with a strong tilt toward Bush. It also shows us FOX News, ARG and Marist College were all wrong. Gallup, CBS and Zogby (the likely voter model for Time Magazine) were the closest.

Gallup & CBS have Obama up by double digits this time around, Zogby has Obama with a 5 point lead.

The big difference, of course, all these polls have Obama up this time around.

[jenmito]

1. K&R for all the great information!

You put me in a good mood. Thanks. NO comparison to Obama this time around. :hi:

[jenmito]

2. kick for an uplifting reality check

[jenmito]

3. kick again to placate any nervous people

[HughMoran]

4. Thanks for putting that together & posting here

Good info - I want to do the same analysis after this election.

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Thanks! You know what really bugs me, though ...

... is the media's rhetoric for this cycle:

Obama's not leading by double digits: He can't close the deal!

Obama's barely pulling 50 percent: He can't close the deal!



Note to the corporate media: EAT MY SHORTS.

[KathieG]

6. I like this!

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

[TZ]

7. Very nice!

I have a relative who does research for Pew and he basically went through this in brief the last time I talked to him....:thumbsup: