OR-Sen: Gordon Smith is Going to Lose

[ccharles000]

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (49)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (42)
Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Last summer, I had an informal phone conversation with someone fairly high up on the food chain over at the DSCC (which, I assure you, is not something I do everyday). At the time, Democrats still hadn't recruited a top-tier candidate to run against Gordon Smith, and some folks in left blogistan (myself included) were worried that this opportunity was slipping away. The DSCC staffer, at that early time, seemed more enthusiastic about this race than any of the other Senate races on the table (remember, Virginia and New Mexico weren't yet open seats at that time). I admit that I didn't quite buy it.

But here we are, almost 18 months later, and Gordon Smith is going to lose:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3790

[DerekJ]

1. When do we know the result of the senate seats on election day?

[eyesroll]

2. If nothing is close, shortly 12 a.m. Eastern.

That's when AK closes.

If there are a few close races, though, it could go awhile--it took a few days before we knew we had control of the Senate in 2006 (Jim Webb's race, I think).

[ccharles000]

4. I guess the same time all the polls are closed.

[Hope And Change]

3. Jeff Merkley rocks!

http://www.jeffmerkley.com/2008/03/merkleyobama_un.php">

[OutNow]

5. Lots of Merkley campaign signs

Dozens of Merkley campaign signs in south Eugene. I saw my first and only Smith sign near the entrance to Three Rivers casino in Florence last week. Florence has its own Obama office this year. Outstanding!

Obama - Merkley - Yes We Can

[Arugula Latte]

6. Another factor: Republicans are turning in their ballots at a lower rate than Democrats in Oregon.

I was doubtful it could be done until very recently, but Merkley is going to be our next Senator and the Left Coast will not have any Senators with an R by their name. :bounce: