How many votes/EV's would a 10% win be, anyway????

[cliffordu]

I understand that it PROBABLY won;t be that much, but 10 points 2 days out is pretty high....

[darius15]

1. Wow, probably around 400-450 at least. But we're not up 10. More like 5-7.

[Seen the light]

2. Bush Sr. won by about 8% in 1988 and won 400+ electoral votes

[Two Sheds]

3. Ten percent would be mean a margin of more than 15 million votes

and probably more than that...

EV's? Who knows? Ten points in PV would mean 390 or so.

My own opinion of the margin has changed. I now think it will be more than 4% which incidentally is a nice thumping win.

[cliffordu]

4. I figured maybe 5 two weeks ago but these poll numbers are nuk-you-ler

[Two Sheds]

6. I'm still enough of an old worry wart to tell you that you shouldn't

go into Tuesday night expecting much more than a 4% win. Just a win is enough. I said above that a 10% win would be 15 million or so votes. Actually, with the turnout expected it would be 17 or 18 million. Meaning my conservative forecast would call for a seven million vote margin. That would be awesome. It would be more than twice what W. got as an incumbent. Considering the obstacles Obama has faced, it would be incredible.

[frogcycle]

5. there is no way to corrrelate EVs to pv margin

sure, one can infer a trend, figure that wide a pv margin would tilt all the close states, and add them up.

But tecnically you could get the pv margin by getting 100% of Ca, NY, and Ill pv, still lose EV. So there is no formula, only speculation.

[cliffordu]

7. I was asking for speculation. I dunno shit about this stuff. I just snark.