SUSA Final NM Poll: Obama 52, McCain 45

[HughMoran]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=95bf6797-cf1e-44ee-8718-0b022d172dc7

Maybe, At the Wire, A Slight Tightening in the New Mexico President and US Senate Contests: 72 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state's 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KOB-TV. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama's winning margin. In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall's once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

[Hope And Change]

1. K & R!

[FVZA_Colonel]

2. "Leads Small" still means a lead.

It might be only 3 or 4 points, but I think we can mark New Mexico as safe.

[HughMoran]

3. They seem to be calling the state based on early voting

Read the text carefully - doesn't it appear that they are calling the state for Obama already?

[FVZA_Colonel]

4. Oh, yeah, I can see that.

They basically are, though they're not sure how big the margin will be. I'll be safe and say around 3 or 4 points.

[Schulzz]

8. PPP did the same in their final NM and CO polls. nt

[dennis4868]

5. anyone know...

what Obama's lead was the last time this poll came out?

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I'm guessing 52-44?

They said McCain's support has been from 44-45%, so it was probably 52-44 last time. Which means no real change.

[mvd]

7. Also 7 - I was surprised

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html

But PPP has him up by more.

[dennis4868]

9. suprised by what?

[mvd]

10. They said there was tightening

[DCBob]

11. Good numbers! NM is safe.

[Augdog20]

12. What do you predict for his winning percentage?

vote in my blog poll: how big will Obama's % be in big cities?
http://bluesunited.blogspot.com

with best vote flipping videos at the blog