Aside from Texas, McCain-Palin has less than 100 electoral college votes locked up.

[Stop Cornyn]

Based on either realclearpolitics.com averages or fivethirtyeight.com weighted averages, McCain has a very limited pool of states (with few electoral votes) locked up (locked up defined as at least a double digit lead):

Alaska (3 EV)
Alabama (9 EV)
Idaho (4 EV)
Kansas (5 EV)
Kentucky (8 EV)
Louisiana (9 EV)
Mississippi (9 EV)
Nebraska (5 EV)
Oklahoma (6 EV)
South Carolina (8 EV)
Tennessee (11 EV)
Texas (34 EV)
Utah (5 EV)
Wyoming (3 EV)

Of these states, South Carolina barely counts as "locked up" (i.e., 10% or greater lead) because McCain's average lead is 10.0%.

Likewise, Texas is misleading because of (1) the especially strong third-party appeal of Barr for Texas Republicans who remain loyal to Ron Paul and who despise McCain and (2) significant post-Katrina demographic shifts. Neither of these two factors is adequately accounted for in most polling in Texas.

I'm not suggesting that McCain won't break 100 electoral votes (he will), but it is staggering that Arizona and Georgia and Montana and Arkansas and North Dakota and South Dakota and West Virginia and North Carolina and Indiana and Missouri aren't locked up for McCain at this stage.

After this election, the solid base of the Republican party will be a small and bitter cluster of sparsely populated territories. No matter what the size of Obama's win, the definition of "battleground states" has shifted dramatically for the foreseeable future.

[Xipe Totec]

1. Yea, good luck getting polling numbers for Galveston Co.

With no phones and no services.

Them people are pissed, and they're gonna let us know come election.

[soccermomforobama]

2. My mom, brother and I keep saying we think Texas could be a surprise for Obama

I think whichever way the Valley goes the state will go because all of the other areas will cancel each other out. No real evidence to support that theory-just a hunch.

[Stop Cornyn]

3. I think an Obama win in Texas is unlikely but entirely possible. The demographic shift in Texas is

not considered by any of the pollsters and will lead to a gross underestimation of Obama's support. I think McCain's lead is not half of what the polls imply, but that still puts an upset in the "slightly unlikely" zone.

[Lisa0825]

4. At the very least, we are winning many local races and

hopefully some statewide too!

[Stop Cornyn]

5. It looks good for 2-3 supreme court wins and 1-2 court of criminal appeals wins

[derby378]

6. Especially since we absorbed all those Hurricane Katrina voters

They still remember what it's like for their government to abandon them. They want McCain punished for standing with Herr Decider while he let New Orleans deteriorate.

[HuckleB]

7. But the truth is that it's sad that they'll get at least 100+ EVs.

They're despicable campaign and they're "4 more years" policies should make this a total blowout. But too many Americans are completely gone.

[Stop Cornyn]

8. True -- they will get more than 100 EVs (I'm thinking they get 191), but the battleground states

have been entirely redefined, and entirely in our favor.