72 hours before election Obama expands his leads almost all daily trackers

[Liberal_in_LA]

http://www.411mania.com/politics

New Polls 11.01.08: FL, IA, PA, National, Trends, EC
By Ashish on November 1, 2008, at 5:47PM

* Gallup RV - Obama 52%, McCain 41%
* Gallup LVI - Obama 52%, McCain 42%
* Gallup LVII - Obama 52%, McCain 42%
* Rasmussen - Obama 51%, McCain 46%
* ABC News - Obama 53%, McCain 44%
* Diageo - Obama 51%, McCain 44%
* Research 2000 - Obama 51%, McCain 44%

And for those who care about the other two trackers that I don't usually cover, IBD/TIPP has Obama up by 5% and Zogby also has Obama up by 5%.

-- And here are your national polling averages (averages of all recent polls).

* 538 - Obama 52.2%, McCain 46.4%
* Pollster - Obama 50.1%, McCain 44.0%
* RCP - Obama 50.2%, McCain 43.6%

-- And, most importantly, the latest electoral college breakdowns.

* 538 - Obama 350, McCain 188
* Pollster - Obama 311, McCain 142, Toss Up 85
* RCP - Obama 353, McCain 184

-----------------------

Pennsylvania has tightened a bit and McCain seems to be within 6%-8%, but his chances of actually winning the state remain next to nothing because he isn't eating into Obama's support, which remains above 50%. At this point, McCain has to win Pennsylvania, or he has no real shot at reaching 270. It's a tough situation for McCain because Obama doesn't even need Pennsylvania to get to 270. He has plenty of ways to get to 270 without PA. So McCain would not only have to win PA, which he has no real shot at doing right now, he'd also have to win Nevada or Virginia while holding Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, and Arizona.

It's also very telling that with 72 hours left, Obama expanded his lead in just about all the daily trackers today. McCain needs to be gaining on Obama right now, not stalling out or falling further behind.

And I'll probably say this each day until the election -- keep an eye on early voting numbers. Each day that goes by in early voting seems to further shift the numbers to even more favorable territory for Obama and Democrats. The perfect example is in Florida, where Democrats now have opened up an 8% lead on Republicans. In 2004, Republicans won early voting by 3% in Florida. That's a 11% shift. In Georgia, more than half the electorate has already voted and African American turnout is still at 35%. As I've been saying for weeks, if African American turnout remains above 30%, Obama is likely to win the state. In Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina, three critical states, over 60% of the electorate has already voted and the numbers are incredibly favorable to Obama.

[Blondiegrrl]

1. Holy shit. I'm feeling ... hopeful. It's so strange to feel hope again, after 8 years.

My favorite passage:

"In Georgia, more than half the electorate has already voted and African American turnout is still at 35%. As I've been saying for weeks, if African American turnout remains above 30%, Obama is likely to win the state."

:bounce: :toast:

[RagAss]

2. Looking good !

[renate]

4. could the party NOT want him to win Penn. because W.Coast voters would go home early

A little strategery... Could Obama's lead be so substantial that losing Pennsylvania would actually be a good thing, since it would result in a better chance of Democratic gains out West?

I still want to know early so the celebrating can begin, and I think Pennsylvania is pretty much a done deal for Obama :woohoo: ... but I also don't want Democrats west of the Eastern or Central time zones to lose out.

[VADem11]

12. Probably not

An Obama landslide would depress turnout among Republicans more than among Democrats. Down-ticket Democrats were hurt pretty badly when the networks called it for Reagan before the polls in the west closed.

[renate]

13. I didn't remember that... but it makes sense

Well, good! Now I can be unreservedly happy when they call Pennsylvania for Obama... it'll be super duper fun watching the rest of the returns come in knowing for sure that it's in the bag. (I don't deal well with suspense ever since 2004.) Thanks!

Edited to add: this is especially good news since McCain only has a 2% chance to win Pennsylvania! :woohoo:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/on-pennsylvania-being-in-play.html

[RL3AO]

5. I'm still a tad nervous about PA

Today a number of the polls were +4 to +8 when a few days ago they were +8 to +12.

[fujiyama]

6. No reason to worry

Obama's been holding steady at around 51 or 52 in all the PA polls. McCain's numbers are going up as undecideds finally drift back to him. Those undecideds were likely unhappy republicans or republican leaning independents anyways. Unless we start seeing that Obama is under 50 in several PA polls, I wouldn't worry. And not a single poll has shown him behind in several months.

And even if by some freak chance he loses the state, he has several paths to victory.

[Tuvok Obama]

7. And for my 14th post (I'm superstitious and don't want to go to sleep with 13 posts on my record)...

5th recommend

[progressoid]

9. Welcome to DU Tuvok Obama!!

:hug:

[intheflow]

10. OMG, Tuvok,

is that little pumpkin yours? Soooooooo cute!

[flygal]

16. LOL - I totally do that too!!

If I see 13 recs I just HAVE To #14!! And what a PUMPKIN!! Welcome!

[TheDonkey]

8. GOBAMA.

[progressoid]

11. How the hell can anyone still be undecided?

BTW, I heard some Fox douche saying that the undecideds are breaking for McCain. Bwa ha ha ha :rofl:
He needs to get more than the undecideds at this point.

But I'm still going to phone bank and canvas tomorrow - Never Give Up!!!

[Blondiegrrl]

3. The undecideds are either (A) not paying attention and don't know shit about the issues, or

(B) they simply love the media fawning over them:

[flygal]

17. The cat picture!!

:rofl:

[No Elephants]

14. The country's fate has been decided by undecideds, the Supreme Court and Diebold. NO MORE. NOT

THIS TIME.

[DCBob]

15. This what many were predicting. In the final days the undecideds would break one way or the other...

and it looks like they are breaking to Obama. This looks like a landslide developing for Tuesday. I can't wait. It gives me chills.

[demo dutch]

18. Still nervous, why 30% it should be close to 90%