PA is the only state where we are dropping....

[Vote2008]

From 11 points on 10/29 to 9 on 10/30 and 10/31 to 7.5 today. I agree that even at that rate we have a 3 point lead on Tuesday but that is really worrying me. I real Silvers posts today and know we do not need it, but it is a worry. Also, no early voting there to McCain can impact it until Tuesday.

And I know Obama is not going there so he must not be worried, and so far they have been perfect.

I guess OH makes up for it and is almost the same number of EVs.

[Thrill]

1. Obama isn't dropping in any poll. The registration numbers aren't there for McCain in PA

He would have to have to win 20% of Dem voters and over 90% of Repukes

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Go take a Xanax and stop bothering people until Wednesday

[WinkyDink]

3. Today, Sunday, the Icon of Icons is canvassing in Bethlehem, W-B, and Scranton: Caroline Kennedy.

PA. IS OURS.

[MrMickeysMom]

12. Was she the ace in the hole?

I mean, she's the one to think of in terms of "bringing it home"... IMO

[briv1016]

4. I think that I heard on MSNBC that Biden was suppose to go there Tomorrow or Monday.

[iamthebandfanman]

5. obama will do fine in PA, it amazes me mccain

hasnt been using his resources to prevent red states going blue...
i know its a defensive tactic, but going after a blue state that you only have a slim chance of changing is kinda... well... stupid.

[writes3000]

6. Didn't you post about your worries about PA less than 24 hours ago?

Same basic post?

Trust Obama.

You don't have a choice but to trust him and his team now.

Unless this is for "I told you so" bragging rights, I don't get the repeat worry posts.

[fujiyama]

10. Look at the numbers, not just the margin

Obama is still over 51% in almost every poll.

And if that holds, it's very unlikely he'll lose the state. Also, as Nate mentioned PA usually follows the national trend fairly closely and it is likely to this time as well (within 2-3 points. +/-).

[napi21]

11. Don't worry about Pa. Obama will be just fine. He may not win by

10-15 pts, but he'll win.

[AndyTiedye]

13. With the DRE (Diebold Republican Electing) Machinez, They Might Win PA

Hope we can hold on to FL, OH, and CO, which are also subject to a huge vote-stealing effort.

No way are they going to get a majority to vote for them, but they might steal it again.
It is close enough to steal.

[book_worm]

16. Obama will handily carry PA

[anonymous171]

17. Obama used PA as a trap.

McCain is stuck campaigning there while Obama is campaigning everywhere else.

[Zynx]

19. It's a terrible idea to assume a "rate" of decline. By the same standard, Obama should have a ten pt

lead in Georgia. Tightening in one state over the course of a week does not mean you can extrapolate it out.

[Vote2008]

22. You are correct. I guess I meant the WORST CASE drop would be to 3.

[CreekDog]

8. you assume a linear drop

do you realize not all rates of change follow linear patterns?

hmmmmm?

[usregimechange]

20. I have had the same thought, I wish he would focus on getting the states he needs rather than

running the board on him.

[CreekDog]

7. you think he is in other states to run up the score?

:banghead:

doofus.

he's in other states because he has a shot at them and because it's harder for McCain to defend several states at once.

McCain is in Pennsylvania because he can narrow the gap there if he spends enough time there and because by doing so he can keep Obama out of states McCain actually needs to win (McCain doesn't need PA to win, but he needs Obama to lose all the other states Obama is in).

Please don't make our candidate sound bad and lacking judgement when he has run a far better campaign and understands strategy much better than you do.

[writes3000]

9. There is a 500,000 registration advantage with new Dems. None of them show on the polls.

If you believe they will show up, just as they've been showing up in NV, CO, NC, GA, NM, guess what?

Obama wins by close to 10.

Spending money in AZ and ND doesn't impact the PA race at all.

[CANDO]

14. Dems have a registration advantage of over 1.1 million

D - 4.336 million
R - 3.199 million

[sandnsea]

21. Kerry won it with 7 counties

and Joe is from Lackawanna. PA is fine.

[Max_powers94]

23. Obama wins PA by 7 or six

[ROh70]

15. If you really want to worry needlessly, you should read threads about the new repub internal

polling showing McCain up 20 in Pennsylvania, tied in California, etc.

[RoyGBiv]

18. Internal, eh?

As in, up the colon?

:evilgrin:

[lancer78]

24. PA is almost irrelevant anyway

All Obama has to do is win NV, VA, IA, CO, and NM plus the kerry states. If he does that, he won't need PA. In some ways I hope we lose FL, OH, and PA but still win. Then their stranglehold on this electoral process will be finished.

[Essene]

25. another new person showing "concern" over drops in single polls.

[caledesi]

29. LOL! NT

[No Elephants]

26. Ground game-specialty of BOTH Rendell and Obama. PA is going blue.

[old mark]

27. Don't know what polls you are reading, but they are wrong.

I live in PA and see NO MOVEMENT toward McCain at all. The numbers you provided are wishfull thinking/delusion on the part of the rightierights, and like the rest of their belief system, have no basis in reality.


Republicans still suck here in Pennsylvania.

mark

[caledesi]

30. Well said! nt

[Eurobabe]

28. Thanks for your concern!

Biden says PA won't be a problem, I tend to believe him. :hi:

[debbierlus]

31. Don't worry - they are sending Biden out there - He was born there

They are shoring it up.

Believe me, if their internal polling suggested a need - Obama would go there....

Biden is adored. He has it.

[AllentownJake]

32. Everyone anticipated PA to tighten

No candidate has won PA by more than 4 points since LBJ.

Don't worry we are fighting on the ground.