How reliable are Mason-Dixon polls?

[Tennessee Gal]

That is what Joe is using this morning.

[dennis4868]

1. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I AM TRYING TO FIGURE OUT...

I went to 538.com and could not find where he analyzes each of the polls...I saw it at the the site yesterday but cannot find it now....Mason Dixon has things close between Obama and McCain in many important states....

[Hugin]

2. Let me put it this way...

M-D's claim to fame is 'correctly calling' the 2000 election for Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. They Don't Do Nat'l Polls

[Hugin]

7. I'm only relaying what I've seen written on their site.

Why is Joe Dead Intern talking about it then?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Beacause They Lean Pug

~

[dennis4868]

3. it seems a though M-D....

has state races much closer than other state polls...

[glowing]

4. Remember, a lot of voters have already voted.. now is the time they

will tighten.. in some of these "swing" states, the early voters, new voters are done.... so, now we have the regulars left.. who shows up and who does not. It's important to think its close in these swing states.. that way, Obama's voters show up and stand in line and don't leave that line.

[gaiilonfong]

6. M-D polls have a +2-3 pt reTHUG bias

according to 538

remember all of these polls a few weeks agao had Obama losing or less of a lead, so the trends are in Obamas favor

[Bravo Zulu]

8. M-D had Obama down 3 points two weeks ago,

so,he's actually gained 6 points!

[Teaser]

10. Reliable: yes. Accurate: no

They have a large built in house effect for Repub. candidates.

They are very reliable, in that their polls don't bounce around much. But they tend to skew Republican (which isn't a bad thing, it just reflects their assumptiosn).

[nygrl224]

11. I don't understand him

He changes what he says everyday. The other day when Gallup likely voter was 3or4%, he was like "thats's the one I look at!" Now, he doesn't mention it. He always picks whatever polls favor him. The worst thing about this show is people always agree with him. All he has been bullshitting about it the statement Obama made in Iowa. It's sickening!

[PolNewf]

12. Look at trends for individual pollsters

Virginia:
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 47 44 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
Mason-Dixon 09/29 - 10/01 625 LV 4.0 45 48 McCain +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/17 - 09/22 625 LV 4.0 44 47 McCain +3

Nevada:
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/28 - 10/29 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/08 - 10/09 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 08/13 - 08/15 400 LV 5.0 39 46 McCain +7
Mason-Dixon 06/09 - 06/11 625 LV 4.0 42 44 McCain +2

Colorado:
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon 10/28 - 10/29 625 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon 09/29 - 10/01 625 LV 4.0 44 44 Tie
Mason-Dixon 08/13 - 08/15 400 LV 5.0 46 43 Obama +3

[quantass]

13. Here is a Rankings list of all the Pollsters...SurveyUSA is God

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings