OH POLL: Obama 52, McCrypt 46.

[jefferson_dem]

Obama keeps his lead in Ohio
Final poll: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Sunday, November 2, 2008 3:37 AM
By Darrel Rowland

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

After an unprecedented campaign that seemed to break a record for breaking records, Barack Obama stands on the threshold of history -- if his poll numbers hold up.

The final Dispatch Poll shows the Illinois Democrat with a 6-point lead in Ohio, virtually identical to the 7-point advantage he held a month ago. The survey is one of many in key states across America that indicate Obama is headed toward a win Tuesday that might not be close, although Republican John McCain is furiously trying to mount one more comeback and prove the pollsters wrong.

Ohioans also appear poised to elect Democrat Richard Cordray as attorney general, defeat yet another attempt to bring casino gambling to the state, and uphold tighter regulations on payday lending.

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.

If Obama's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964.

<SNIP>

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/11/02/POLL02.ART_ART_11-02-08_A1_93BOK6G.html?sid=101

[aaaaaa5a]

1. Outstanding! K&R!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. NICE

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points

[sarahdemva]

3. i like this part!!

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. JINX

~

[Tribetime]

5. What's that...Joe the Scab not working in Ohio

I'm stunned

[dontforgetpoland]

6. Although I hope this is true. Columbus Dispatch polling is ...

terrible.

They use a mail-in polling system and has proven to be very erratic. In the Dem primaries they have Clinton winning Oh by only +3. Nate Silver ranks Columbus Dispatch as the worst polling firm from his list with a error rate avg. of 8.00%.

I am encourage that Obama is doing so well in OH and I believe will win it, but I'm very cautious reading anything from this polling firm.

[Tribetime]

8. What was the margin of Clinton 7-8

[dontforgetpoland]

11. 8.65%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Democratic_primary,_2008

Ohio Democratic presidential primary, 2008<6>
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates<3>
Hillary Clinton 1,259,620 53.49% 74
Barack Obama 1,055,769 44.84% 67
John Edwards 39,332 1.67% 0
Totals 2,233,156 100.00% 141

[fujiyama]

9. Good to know

I'm sure we'll see a million OH polls the next two days...Hope they show similar results...

[Condem]

13. I don't think they've ever been wrong .....

....in this poll for president. They had it at a dead heat in 04.

[Condem]

20. Jesus, Jefferson. You said that in your post.

I'm a fucking idiot. Sorry.

[fujiyama]

7. Hell Yes!

I will take those numbers!

I so want Obama to take Ohio and Florida. It would be great revenge for the last two elections...and it would also give him 300+ electoral votes...

[HughMoran]

10. Good deal

6 points is outside MOE - looks really good.

[Hokie]

12. Ohio is looking good

If Obama carries Ohio all the McCain win scenarios pretty much evaporate. Great that Gov. Rocks for a Brain is there.

[dennis4868]

17. If Obama wins...

OH then all he needs is either CO or VA and he wins the election (assuming he carries all the Kerry states)

[Hope And Change]

14. K & R!

[road2000]

15. Remember too...

Big rallies today and tonight in Cleveland and Cincinnati.

[HughMoran]

16. kick

[Phx_Dem]

18. Hate to be downer, but Nate, Kos say Columbus Dispatch is the WORST poll around

by a huge margin -- even worse than Zogby Interactive. They had a bad record in 2006 so I wouldn't get too excited about this one.

Crappy Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll
by kos
Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 07:15:08 AM PDT

With a post excitedly recounting the Columbus Dispatch's latest numbers on the rec list, I feel compelled to throw a bucked of cold water on the revelers. In short, whatever successes the poll might've once had, it's now by far, the worst poll in existence.

The poll is a mail poll. As in snail mail. The "pollster" sends out questionnaires, and people fill them out and return them. And that methodological flaw has produced wildly inaccurate results.

The poll's track record, once pretty good, took an ominous turn for the worse in 2005. Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal, then writing as Mystery Pollster, wrote:

<SNIP>

Worse than Zogby. And in the 2008 primaries, the Dispatch poll had the distinction of turning in the worst performance out of any pollster -- by a LONG SHOT. And that includes Zogby's crappy internet poll. From Nate Silver's pollster rankings:

See Ranking List at link.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/2/95226/8491/102/649763

[ROh70]

19. But their presidential polls have been very accurate

"The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points."

[Phx_Dem]

21. I don't think that gives them extra credibility.

I think it's more important how close their poll numbers come to the actual result, than what the end result is. I also think Obama will win Ohio, but that doesn't give me any credibility in predicting the outcome if Obama does win Ohio. It's 50/50 prediction -- anyone could do that.

Pollsters need to come close to the actual results in order to get a good ranking -- not just predict the winner.

I hope this poll is right, but I'm not gonna get to excited about it. Nate Silver doesn't have a single poll from Columbus Dispatch represented in his Ohio polling stats.