My revised "time they call the election" prediction: 9 PM EST.

[Pab Sungenis]

I think the election could be called as early as 9 PM EST on Tuesday if the current trends hold up.

My scenario: Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. McCain takes Missouri and Indiana. Under this scenario, Colorado and New Mexico reporting at 9 PM EST give Obama 271 electoral votes, and the win.

I predict final count: Obama 348, McCain 190.

[DainBramaged]

1. I was waiting till Tuesday, got it all ready to post

now it's toast. :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

[GarbagemanLB]

2. If Obama wins NC and Virginia, it is over.

[cali]

8. Actually, he only has to win one of those, and of course retain PA

[Pab Sungenis]

12. If he wins VA and NC

He can lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida and still win with 285 EV.

[Seen the light]

3. People that are making these early early predictions are forgetting two things:

1.) Massive, massive turnout. It's going to take a LONG time to even get 50% of the votes counted in most of these battleground states. That's going to cause the networks to hold off on projecting states for quite a while, even if it looks like Senator Obama is well ahead in voting tabulations in that state.

2.) The fact that all of the battleground states are red states. Let's say that exit polling in Colorado shows Senator Obama with a 9 point win. Early tabulations show him up 70-30, but with only a handful of precincts in immediately when the polls close. Do you really think they're going to call Colorado that soon for Senator Obama even with these very favorable things to consider? I don't. They're going to be very slow to pull the trigger in calling a red state for Senator Obama.

I say let them take their time. I'm prepared to wait all night if I have to.

(My personal prediction is they'll call it at 11pm EST when California is called for Senator Obama.)

[Waiting For Everyman]

14. I agree with you.

It may even look disappointing until 9 est, because most of the early closing states are either McC's or close toss ups which he may win.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

4. pabsungenis: please name your as-of-9pm Obama states

I calculate 275, but that rests on Obama taking either Indiana or Missouri (11 EVs each) plus the following:

CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WI


I don't see how you get past 270 at 9 p.m. without awarding either Indiana or Missouri to Obama. Are you giving him GA too?

[Pab Sungenis]

7. Here are my calls:

ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, DE, DC, MD, VA, OH, NC, FL, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, NM for Obama at or before 9 PM.

[Seen the light]

10. Remember that they won't call these states immediately

Even if Senator Obama ends up taking Virginia by 5-10 points, they're still not going to be able to call it for him there immediately.

[Guava Jelly]

5. Don't give Missouri to McCain so quick

I believe Obama will win here

[BlueManDude]

6. Early numbers in VA will be very interesting. I think the nets are going to be very cautious

about calling states.

[Pab Sungenis]

9. Which is why I still think IN is the real bellwether.

If IN is too close to call at 7 PM EST, it's a landslide.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

11. Iowa closes at 10 p.m. EST

I think the original poster is including on Iowa in his count, but it has a 10 p.m. EST close. So barring a miracle from, say, Louisiana, the best Obama could do at 9 p.m. without Georgia, Indiana or Missouri in his pocket would be 264.

[Pab Sungenis]

13. You're right, I stand corrected.

It will still be 10 PM EST then, unless GA or IN flip, in which case it's really all over.