Chuck Todd's Final Electoral Map: Obama 286, McCain 157, Toss-up 95

[jefferson_dem]

First thoughts: Our final map
Posted: Sunday, November 02, 2008 10:01 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann

*** Our final map: With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here’s where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/02/1626684.aspx

[rockymountaindem]

1. He doesn't even have the guts to make calls about toss-up states?

What's he getting paid for? Take a risk!

[Jennicut]

7. Yeha, no guts. He did well in the primaries but geez, make a call Chuckie T.

[Fluffdaddy]

9. Chuck Todd goes by data...........not gut feeling. If the numbers are not there

What the hell you want him to do?

[stray cat]

12. Whats wrong with calling them toss up states - his job is to present the data

not run his mouth like Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchannan

[bigdarryl]

2. Chucky Cheese must be about to shit in his pants on reporting those numbers I think

he's a McCain lover

[GOPNotForMe]

16. I've never observed anything he's said or done to indicate that he is. nt

[Botany]

3. the only way N.D. and Ohio don't go Obama is by cheating.

Ohio is going deep deep deep blue.

[Fluffdaddy]

4. Chuck Todd is a good guy............he's one of us

[jefferson_dem]

5. In that...

he's human?

[Obamarama]

8. You're joking, right?

He even admitted on MSNBC that he's in the Resmuglican camp. Know your enemies, Fluffdaddy.

[Fluffdaddy]

13. BS...............Todd never said anything like that...........Prove it

[ananda]

6. Suspicious polling.

What the fuck is Mason-Dixon, and why is
M-D the ONLY poll being relied on for
statewide races?

This is very suspicious to me, particularly
since M-D has McCain ahead of Obama in Ohio
and way too close to Obama in Virginia.

I think nefarious undertakings are afoot,
in other words, they want you to think it's
close so they can steal Ohio and maybe VA.

Call me paranoid, but I don't think McCain
is that close in VA and I think Obama is
leading McCain in Ohio.

[Jennicut]

14. Because its partnered with NBC so that is why MSNBC uses it.

Check out the other post about Mason Dixon polling. A poster had the #'s from 2004, Bush was over-favored by a few points in some major battleground states and the final outcome was much closer then Mason-Dixon showed. They are not reliable.

[Robbins]

10. Chuck Todd

While I don't always like his anaylis he Is better than some on NBC/MSNBC.

The fact he now has Montana and North Dakota as tossup now Is great news for us.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. WTF? New Jersey

New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago)

This is the kind of shit I have railed about to myself - this delay crap with ALL the evidence before them for polls, and refusing to accurately portray the map as it should be... particularly when leads were outside of MOE. Schmuck Todd and the rest of that crew are idiots. PA, NM, and IA should not be a "Lean Obama" but "Likely Obama" as well.

[brazos121200]

15. Nearly a two-to-one margin for Obama two days before the voting.

There's no way McCain legimately wins this election. If McCain wins Tuesday, you've got to know he stole it. You don't change a two-to-one lead in the electoral college around in two days.

There's apparently some narrowing of Obama's lead in some key swing states, but with a 7 to 10% lead in the nation overall, Obama should win handily.

[fujiyama]

17. Iowa LEANS for Obama?

This is just laughable.

I can understand not wanting to place VA in the likely category...

Overall, this looks reasonable but c'mon you may as well make a call about the toss-ups.

[underpants]

18. 157 + 95 = 257 McCain can't get to 270

PA and VA are the key. In fact if Obama wins VA it is over

[brazos121200]

19. I don' think PA is even in play, if Gore and Kerry could carry it

there's no way Obama won't. Until a few days ago, VA looked safe for Obama, with various leads of 6 to 9 points, now all of a sudden it's too close to call?

[Pirate Smile]

20. WHAT.A.COP.OUT.