What is this crap of showing Mason-Dixon polls by MSNBC/NBC? Sounds like Brokaw's call.

[1776Forever]

538 site has them listed way down the list:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

(snip)

This includes essentially every competitive presidential race, and most competitive primary races, Senate races, and Governor races. I also expanded the playing field literally to include a number of new pollsters, including both some national pollsters and some regional ones, up to a total of 32 pollsters in all. A pollster was included if it had at least 5 surveys in my database.

My methodology remains essentially the same as in this Daily Kos diary. My process is to look at the average miss for each pollster across each contest they polled, and compare it to the average miss of other pollsters in those same contest, after going through a more-complicated-than-it-needs-to-be iterative process.

The results are below, split into groups for 'regional' and 'national' pollsters. (This distinction is arbitrary -- some pollsters like Insider Advantage and Quinnipiac straddle the line between being regional and national -- but helpful for presentation). 'Error' represents the average error for the particular pollster, as compared to the 'IAE', which is the iterated average error for other pollsters in those same contests.



The last step is to translate these numbers into weights, which involves some algebraic transformations that translate the pollster's average margin of error into an effective sample size, while also regressing to the mean for pollsters with a small number of surveys. These weights are calibrated such that the average poll (not necessarily the average pollster, since the better pollsters tend to be more prolific and poll more contests) will have a weight of 1.00.

[dennis4868]

1. M-D does the state polling...

for MSNBC, NBC, etc...

[1776Forever]

2. Oh now we know the rest of the story! Thank you! n/t...