WaPo: Polls Show Obama Leading in States Whose Electoral Votes Total Nearly 300

[Amerigo Vespucci]

The State Of the Races
Polls Show Obama Leading in States Whose Electoral Votes Total Nearly 300, and the Democrats Heading Toward Expanded House and Senate Majorities

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/01/AR2008110102082.html?nav=rss_email/components



Barack Obama and running mate Joseph R. Biden Jr. rally for votes at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg in September.

By David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, November 2, 2008; Page AA01

Barack Obama and the Democrats hold a commanding position two days before Tuesday's election, with the senator from Illinois leading in states whose electoral votes total nearly 300 and with his party counting on significantly expanded majorities in the House and Senate.

John McCain is running in one of the worst environments ever for a Republican presidential nominee. The senator from Arizona has not been in front in any of the 159 national polls conducted over the past six weeks. His slender hopes for winning the White House now depend on picking up a major Democratic stronghold or fighting off Obama's raids on most of the five states President Bush won four years ago that now lean toward the Democrat. He also must hold onto six other states that Bush won in 2004 but are considered too close to call.

Two factors cloud the final weekend projections. The first is how voters ultimately respond to the prospect of the first African American president in U.S. history, a force that could make the contest closer than it appears. The other, which pushes in the opposite direction, is whether Obama can expand the electorate to give him an additional cushion in battleground states.

Obama leads in every state that Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry won four years ago, which gives him a base of 252 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win. He also has leads of varying sizes in five states Bush won: Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Were he to win all of those on Tuesday, he would claim the presidency with 291 electoral votes.

The tossup states include traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Florida and Missouri, as well as North Carolina, Indiana and Montana, which have been firmly in the Republican column in the past. They account for 87 electoral votes, and if Obama were to win several of them, his electoral vote total could push well into the 300s.