Nate Silver is uncharacteristically a downer today, BUT you'd do well to heed THIS paragraph...

[Bicoastal]

"I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable."

Of course, only in our little world would McCain having a 6% chance of winning be a downer. But it is, even if some new, positive PPP polls are on the way. :(

On the other hand, RealClearPolitics has Obama ahead by 6.3% points which is pretty awesome. And electoral-college.com is pretty confident about an Obama landslide, with 364 EVs projected.

[jefferson_dem]

1. We'll see what happens when the new PPP polls are dropped into his model.

:popcorn:

[HughMoran]

2. You mean the part left out by the downer thread?

Yes, I am aware as I read THE ENTIRE ARTICLE before it was dumped and promoted here by negative downer people.

[nyccitizen]

3. Question: Does Nate weigh his poll stats based on pollsters' past reliability? nt

[regnaD kciN]

4. The other thing to remember about Nate...

...is his "2/2/2 Condition" which has it that the race will be "tightening" only under the following conditions:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If all those tests are met, the race can be considered close enough for a McCain victory to be possible. But, so far, McCain hasn't drawn within 2 points in any poll in any of those states in the last few weeks...and there aren't a whole lot of polls left to be released.

To put it in perspective, here are the most recent polls in each of those states:

COLORADO
10/29 PPP O +10
10/29 ARG O +7
10/28 Marist O +6

PENNSYLVANIA
Tracker Muhlenberg/Morning Call O +7
10/30 Rasmussen O +4
10/30 ARG O +6
10/27 Marist O +14

VIRGINIA
10/27 Marist O +4
10/26 SUSA O +9
10/26 Rasmussen O +4
10/26 CNN O +9

ON EDIT: Decided to include Nate's own description of the "2/2/2 Condition," plus add the recent non-partisan state polls.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. Isn't it amazing that we're annoyed we're "only" winning by 5-6 points..

... and that our EV haul might "only" be 326?

As a Missouri voter/volunteer, I *really* hope we win Missouri (which is dead even in the polls right now and which Nate projects will go to McCain narrowly). But I'm comforted by the fact that a win in Missouri is basically icing on the cake.

[malik flavors]

6. He's not being a downer, he's just giving you the numbers. Take them how you like.