Pew Research final poll: Remember in 04 they were dead on

[bigdarryl]

I think this is the poll out of all polling that should be taken seriously although they have the race tightening a little I wanted a 12 point lead in the popular vote so these damn rethugs want say Obama has no mandate and they couldn't try and steal it AGAIN http://people-press.org/report/468/obama-leads-mccain-in-final-days

[KansasVoter]

1. Put the damn results in your post!!!

[Liberal_in_LA]

4. YES, put them in there dang it!

[FreeState]

2. 52% to 46% n/t

[DrToast]

14. 49-42 is the final poll result. 52-46 is their forecast with undecided's allocated. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Not good numbers at all.

Ignoring their estimate and just look at the raw total, which has Obama leading by only 7 49-42, he's lost 4 points, while McCain has gained 4 for an 8 point swing in a week? Ouch.

[MadBadger]

5. I look at it a different way. He was never up 16 points. THat poll was ridiculous.

For how long have we been saying Obama is up 5-7 points? Well look at that, Obama is up 5-7 points.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Maybe, but the Pew Poll before that had Obama up by roughly the same margin.

So why the sudden change?

[Teaser]

17. Flip a coin 10 times. Repeat this operation 50 times

500 total flips, 50 runs of 10 a piece.

I'd bet that you'd get some runs with 3 heads and 7 tails, or 2 heads and 8 tails. You may also see the converse.

It's called noise, and it's implicit in random sampling.

[Spider Jerusalem]

12. And more importantly above 50% in almost every major national poll...

and all of the key swing states.

[aaaaaa5a]

25. Good call!

We need a dose of reality. No Democrat in TODAY'S POLITICAL CLIMATE is going to win a Presidential race say, 57-41!



A 5 to 7 point lead is excellent, just one day out. I also like the fact THAT ALL OF THE POLLS SAY ABOUT THE SAME THING.


Remember, Bush lost the popular vote by 0.5% in 2000. And then won the popular vote by about 2.5% in 2004. AND HE GOVERNED WITH A MANDATE FOR 8 YEARS!


Guys, we are in great shape.

[book_worm]

32. you're right! it's silly to be disappointed by a 7-point margin. That original 16-pt lead

was just silly. Nice, but silly. This is fine.

[Liberal_in_LA]

7. Good enough considering 1/3rd of voters have already voted.

[Bicoastal]

11. Dammit, do you even know what a double digit lead looks like?

Reagan won the country by roughly 10% popular vote in 1980:



I'd wager you haven't seen any maps like this recently.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. And I doubt we will this time.

[dennis4868]

24. damn...

how did Reagan do that? they didn't even have e-voting machines back then...

[Joe Chi Minh]

35. I heard that talking-heads suggesting Obama could well improve on Reagan's

landside. Do you really think that John Kennedy would have attracted bigger crowds than Obama. I doubt if it's even feasible. Some of those scenes were wall-to-wall supporters as far as the eye could see. And that was some way.

[AlCzervik]

13. are you kidding? Cheer up will ya.

[Teaser]

23. You are smoking crack

drunken, hell, you're strung out.

[Zynx]

26. Well, did you actually believe the 14 point spread?

I know I didn't.

Seven points is a very respectable spread.

[jefferson_dem]

33. Not true.

Forget the trend and look at the projection. All the polling firms are looking to nail the final vote now. Obama is +11 with registered voters, +7 with LV and their projection is 52-46. PEW / Kohut have stellar reputations are proven reliable.

Do you realize the electoral landslide a six point pop vote advantage would produce?

[regnaD kciN]

36. The previous Pew poll struck me as the definition of "outlier"...

...as I commented on at the time. They had a 15-point margin when the widest margin in any of the national trackers was 8 points? Please!

A long time ago, Chris Bowers (I think) was saying that the race would tighten, probably to a 3- to 5-point margin, and that a 5%-8% lead would, in this day and age, be considered a landslide. Well, guess what? We seem to be in "landslide" territory two days before the election.

[Cosmic Charlie]

55. you are the biggest crybaby I've seen on this board in months, always the pessimist

but I guess the Irish aren't known for their cheery dispositions, are they?

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Thanks for the info...

but the top-line needs to be edited to put the survey results upfront.

[S_E_Fudd]

9. Did anyone truly expect a 15 pt victory...

52-46 is their estimate including how undecideds will break...

A nice result...

Among all registered it is still 13 points 52-39

[AlCzervik]

10. why no cut and paste, do you not know how or is it just laziness? How many years now

Darryl?

[Motown_Johnny]

15. I will be quite happy with a 5% popular vote win, along with 270+ EV

a win is a win at this point.

we can worry about the rest on wednesday

[Thrill]

16. A 6-7 point lead is a landslide

[Fluffdaddy]

38. There will be no landslide. This will be year 2000 close

[book_worm]

44. No it won't be.

[Fluffdaddy]

47. In two days we will see. Please PM me when one of us is proven wrong

[MadBadger]

52. Well Geee, I hope your political analysis is really shitty

Which I think it is

[Thrill]

53. Well I don't doubt it could be a close election. Its hard to believe a Republican

could be running behind in all the Polls in red states like NC and Va. And tied or barely ahead in MO and GA could be running an election close as 2000. Especially when he's not even running in the MOE in any blue states. I guess we'll find out

[mrreowwr_kittty]

19. Pew is a very solid polling organization

Many of the others I don't trust so much.

[Schulzz]

20. Internals here:

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/468.pdf

Some of the tightening is caused by change in party ID.

They used (this poll):
38% Dem
28% Rep
28% Ind

Last poll:
40% Dem
25% Rep
30% Ind

[Thrill]

29. So they dropped Dems and Ind 2% a piece and add 3 % to the Repukes Polled

No wonder. Having said that. I still think this is about right. 7 percent

[jazzjunkysue]

43. Thanks. That's what I was wondering.

[jazzjunkysue]

21. Pew was right last time, but, have the adjusted their sample to reflect this year's

record turnout?

If not, then Obama will beat the Pew, easily.

[Gman]

22. This morning I read where Ed Rollins said it's over

the closing of the polls is not movement toward McCain but Republicans coming home. It's not anyone switching their intended vote, it's not undecideds breaking toward McCain. It's just Republicans coalescing around McCain. It does not mean GOP disaster might be averted Tuesday.

Republican political consultant Ed Rollins reluctantly echoed that assessment.

"The numbers are tightening, but that's Republicans coming home," Rollins said. "It's over. Obama will have an electoral-vote landslide."

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/11/01/2008-11-01_whatever_happens_election_day_democracy_.html

[bigdarryl]

27. They also I noticed only have Obama winning 89% of the African American vote

I'm not believing he's only getting 89% of AA vote I think in my opinion (I may be wrong)he will get 96% come election day

[AlCzervik]

28. well seeing as you posted no info how the fuck would we know that?

[bigdarryl]

39. I'm listening to AA radio and the record number of people turning out in droves

like in NC

[Fluffdaddy]

54. 89% African American vote is low. My gut tells me 95-97%

[bertman]

30. How far up were Gore and Kerry two days before '00 and '04 elections?

[Zynx]

40. They were both decidedly down.

[Fluffdaddy]

50. Going by memory..........only one major poll had JK up +1 on election day

[ROh70]

31. Obama is winning in the final PEW poll. What's the fuss?

[book_worm]

34. some people go crazy with any tightening of the polls. But a 7-pt lead is excellent.

[Fluffdaddy]

41. I will take and be very happy with 7-pt lead two days out.

[Schulzz]

37. Polls were so great in the last weeks that people started to get carried away.

A month ago a 6 point lead in national polls, 7 point lead in PA and 4 point lead in VA would have been considered as great news.

[Fluffdaddy]

45. None....................Some peeps think we should be +10. Be happy with +7 two days out

[book_worm]

42. In preview of poll Pew says that Obama's lead is "significant" so calm down people.

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

[Fluffdaddy]

51. I will not calm down until AFTER the election and Barack Obama is called President-elect

And you can't make me

[mvd]

46. This is a final projection I like

Sounds like the difference was most an adjustment on their part. Early voting should bring us the victory - it also shows we are motivated.

[Fluffdaddy]

49. Indeed. I can happily live with this final projection

[demokatgurrl]

48. Electoral votes. State polls. that is all. n/t