Pew 2004, Pew 2008

[AlCzervik]

2004



2008




http://people-press.org/

K?

[HughMoran]

1. Are those new Pew numbers?

I hadn't seen those yet!

Down to 6 points huh? Well, at least we know this is likley a pretty accurate assesment - I'll take 6!

[AlCzervik]

2. yes those are the new numbers.

[jefferson_dem]

3. That's the spirit, Hugh!

I trust the shit out of PEW. Six points is an electoral landslide.

Check out the record...and the "strong" support for Obama -



http://people-press.org/report/468/obama-leads-mccain-in-final-days

[grantcart]

15. they are also the final pew numbers

[HughMoran]

17. +7 (+6 including 3rd party) is fine with me

I expect an approximately 6% win myself.

[TheDonkey]

4. onward to victory!

[Phoonzang]

5. What happened in a few days to make Obama go from

a 15 point lead to a 7 point lead?

[AkFemDem]

8. Khalidi.

[yourguide]

10. no one cares about khalidi.

[AkFemDem]

13. Wrong. I personally know someone who says this tipped her vote to McCain

and I don't know a whole lot of people. I think she was leaning McCain anyway, but she attribites this stoyr as "the last straw".

THe polls have showed tightening in recent days and I think its well within the realm of "reasonable" to infer a negative Khalidi-PR campaign had some effect. Negative campaigning, for all its distastefulness- works. That's why they keep doing it.

I think it's too little, too late, Obama has this race won. But I'm not blind to the fact these types of stories have some effect.

[PaDem]

11. disagree............

it's the non-stop negative McCain ads running across the country on Rev. Wright and other absurd issues. Khalidi isn't on many people's radar.

[TheDonkey]

12. My guess, there is a recalibaration of "LVs"

ie. adding more republicans into the mix.

[fugop]

14. From the other Pew thread

It seems they changed their Party ID weighting. Last one gave the Dems something like a 15-point advantage, from what I saw? This one cut it to a 10% Dem advantage. That might have a little something to do with it...

[bigdarryl]

6. What's the difference between likely and registered?

[scheming daemons]

7. Pew 2000

Bush 49
Gore 47


Result: 49-49



They're accuracy record is impeccable. A 6-point win sounds about right.

[bigdarryl]

9. those numbers are not right Gore won the popular vote

[scheming daemons]

16. Both Gore and Bush's numbers rounded out to 49%

Gore's win in the pop vote was about 500,000 nationwide.... this was less than half a percent.