2004 RCP Results(final day) compared to final results, OR THE POLLS WERE PRETTY F'N ACCURATE.

[Dawgs]

And, they were much closer than this years numbers.

Here's the link for the battlegrounds--> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

Also, Rudy Giuliani is wrong when he said Republicans out perform the polls.

OHIO
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 2.1), Election (Bush 2.1), Difference (0)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained 0

MICHIGAN
2004 RCP Poll (Kerry 3.5), Election (Kerry 3.4), Difference (0.1)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained +0.1

MINNESOTA
2004 RCP Poll (Kerry 3.2), Election (Kerry 3.4), Difference (0.2)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -0.2

IOWA
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 0.3), Election (Bush 0.7), Difference (0.4)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained +0.4

COLORADO
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 5.2), Election (Bush 4.7), Difference (0.5)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -0.5

NEW MEXICO
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 1.4), Election (Bush 0.8), Difference (0.6)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -0.6

WISCONSIN
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 0.9), Election (Kerry 0.4), Difference (1.3)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -1.3

PENNSYLVANIA
2004 RCP Poll (KERRY 0.9), Election (Kerry 2.5), Difference (1.6)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -1.6

MISSOURI
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 4.2), Election (Bush 7.2), Difference (3.0)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained +3.0

NEVADA
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 6.3), Election (Bush 2.6), Difference (3.7)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained -3.7

FLORIDA
2004 RCP Poll (Bush 0.6), Election (Bush 5.0), Difference (4.4)
Difference between Bush and Final Result: Bush Gained +4.4

--------------

So, the polls were really accurate (within 0.6) in six of these eleven states. Eight of the states were within 1.6. Only three were off by more than 3.

Even better, only one poll (Wisconsin) got it wrong. Every other poll had the winner picked correctly; even though many of these races were really close (much closer than 2008).

Also, the final difference only favored Bush in four of the states (MI, IA, MO, & FL). Actually, it was really only two states; the others were just noise. Kerry outperformed in every other state (except OH; which got it right). Giuliani is a dipshit.

If you follow the link above you can see that the poll numbers back in 2004 were much more erratic than they are today. Outside of the new Mason Dixon polls, Obama has been in the lead in almost every poll. That wasn't the case four years ago.

This is all good news folks. :)

[Bicoastal]

1. I don't understand! Why would Rudy Giuliani lie about the probability of Republican chances?

And when has Rudy been wrong about anything, in terms of campaigning on a national level?

:sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm:

[Dawgs]

2. I know. I so used to trust the guy.

:hi:

[TheDonkey]

3. Anyone who trusts anything Ghouliani has to say needs to settle down

[Dawgs]

4. I hope no one here trusts him.

I just added it to my analysis for anyone that might still be worried.

[HughMoran]

5. Now this is worth a K&R!!

I wonder if those promoting the negative will also promote the positive?

[Dawgs]

6. Doesn't seem like it.

I was trying to be positive and show that even if the polls are close, an Obama lead in the average is still a good predictor of who will win.

[HughMoran]

8. It's blowing my mind

Lots of polls with decent news in them and the sour note posters have run for the hills.

They're probably over at ** screaming about how they were oppressed when they simply tried to "tell the truth" on DU! :eyes:

[ProSense]

7. So Bush was up by 2.1 percent in Ohio and

the Republicans suppressed 350,000 votes?

The Ohio polls were within the margin of error, and the outcome in Ohio doesn't validate them.

[Dawgs]

9. I know. But, that's not the point of my post.

[mzmolly]

10. Absolutely. The pre-election polls then, were a very different story

than they are today.