MSNBC Finally Fesses Up - "Context on those Mason-Dixon polls..."

[jefferson_dem]

Context on those Mason-Dixon polls...
Posted: Sunday, November 02, 2008 4:04 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Polls

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Some might be interpreting the latest Mason-Dixon polls as showing weakness for Obama since he has not reached 50%.

It's true that the bad news for Obama in these polls is, as we wrote in First Read, that he hasn't reached 50%. But it should also be pointed out that Obama's position has actually gotten stronger -- when looking at the Mason-Dixon poll trendlines -- particularly in states like Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. In other states, movement has been negligible and within the margin of error.

In Colorado, Obama has gained five percentage points from the previous Mason-Dixon poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 1, when the candidates were tied at 44%. In the latest poll, Obama leads by five, 49%-44%.

In Nevada, Obama has gained 10 points since August, when McCain led by six, 47%-41%, and two points since their Oct. 8-9 poll. In the latest poll, Obama leads 47%-43%.

In Virginia, Obama has gained six percentage points since a Sept. 29-Oct. 1 poll that showed a three-point McCain lead, 48%-45%. In the latest poll, it's Obama who leads by three, 47%-44%.

As far as the overwhelming majority of the undecided voters being white, keep in mind that black and Hispanic/Latino voters have consistently favored Obama by wide margins in public polling and have already moved toward the Democratic nominee. In states like Missouri, for example, where the race is within the margin of error, black voters only made up 8% of the electorate, and Hispanics/Latinos 1% in 2004. In Colorado, blacks made up just 4% of the electorate in 2004 and Hispanics made up 8% in exit polls.

That doesn't mean that McCain might not have an advantage with remaining white voters, since he is winning a majority white voters generally in public polling and focus groups. But it is also telling that many undecideds are Bush voters and have not yet decided on McCain.

<SNIP>

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/02/1627618.aspx

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Exactly. You have to compare apples to apples.

[azmouse]

2. K&R

[Cha]

3. Rec'd~Thanks

Jefferson.

[nycmjkfan]

4. That's a lot of words to say

we need ratings for election night!!

[mzmolly]

5. sigh of relief...

:hi:

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thank you! K&R!