Obama on track to be first Dem to win with more than 50% since 1976

[ProSense]

Barack Obama is on track to be the first Democrat to win a majority of the vote since 1976

[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[liberalpragmatist]

2. Poor Bill Clinton

Perot kept him from claiming a handsome popular vote majority in both '92 and '96. Certainly in '96, Clinton's 49% would almost certainly have been at least a few points higher without Perot in the race (even if you assume that 2/3 or Perot '96 voters would have voted for Dole).

Hell, even WITH Perot, Clinton would probably have gotten more than 50% had turnout been decent -- instead, turnout in '96 was dreadful.

[ProSense]

3. I think Perot drew from both candidates,

but more from Republicans.

[liberalpragmatist]

4. Polls in '92 had him drawing evenly from both

Exit polls showed Clinton would only have lost Ohio without Perot in the race. And when Perot sat out the race between July and Oct '92, polls had Clinton CRUSHING Bush.

Without Perot, Clinton would probably have won by a similar margin as that by which Obama looks set to beat McCain. It would have been something like 52-46 for Clinton.

[book_worm]

5. In '96 without Perot he certainly would have won more than 50%

[ProSense]

6. Most likely. n/t